A Most Unusual Blessing
Robinson Cano has been suspended for 162 games. It's too bad for baseball — but for the Mets, it's a relief.
Could the Mets have drawn this up any better?
Ok: it’s not unmitigated joy. It’s sad to see a legendary player’s career suddenly go down in flames. Robinson Cano was excellent for the Mets in an abbreviated 2020 season and might have been just as good in 2021. And it’s unfortunate to realize that steroids continue to permeate baseball, despite all the progress it seems like MLB has made.
But still: could the Mets have drawn this up any better?
Robinson Cano has been suspended for 162 games after testing positive for Stanozolol. With Cano suspended, the Mets will save more than $20 million in 2021, effectively killing a third of Cano’s remaining contract for free; that money can go towards upgrades all around the diamond. They’ll no longer need to find Cano playing time, even as a DH; that time can go to others, like Pete Alonso and J.D. Davis, whose contributions in the field don’t measure up to what they can do at the plate. And their infield flexibility will increase dramatically, allowing Jeff McNeil, Andres Giménez, and Luis Guillorme to all get the playing time they’ve earned.
With Cano out for the 2021 season, the Mets lineup begins to come into focus. Besides catcher — J.T. Realmuto, God willing — and center field — maybe George Springer; maybe a different free agent; maybe just Brandon Nimmo shifted over a spot — it’s actually pretty clear. Pete Alonso and Dom Smith will platoon at first; Smith will likely also see time in left field, and both will probably take an occasional turn at DH (assuming the National League decides to adopt the DH). Some combination of Jeff McNeil, Luis Guillorme, Andres Giménez, and Amed Rosario will play second, third, and short. Of those three, strange as it might have seemed a year ago, Rosario will probably see the least playing time. He walked four times in 147 plate appearances in 2020; his OBP was .272, and that’s not a level of offense that the Mets’ new regime is likely to tolerate.
In the outfield, Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo will be fixtures, with Conforto likely in right field and Nimmo in left. Nimmo mostly played center in 2020, but he was worth -4 Outs Above Average at the position, compared to 0 in left. Perhaps the Mets will bring in a free agent outfielder like George Springer (+1 OAA in center in 2020); if they do, the starting center fielder will be obvious. If not, the Mets could choose to stick Dom Smith back in left, as they did fairly often in 2020; he’s not much of an outfield defender, and he would move Nimmo to a defensive position with which he’s less comfortable, but at least the offense would be strong. And J.D. Davis, of course, could D.H.
Notice what’s missing? Any mention of the two-year elephant in the room, the aging player with the gargantuan contract who was making too much money just to sit on the bench. Robinson Cano was fairly terrible in 2019; in 2020, he was much better. But his contract was an albatross all the same. Would he continue to hit? Would another injury crop up if he jogged too hard down the line to first? Could he last as a defensive second baseman forever — and if not, would his salary cement him at DH even if his offense waned as well?
The questions are officially off the table, at least for a year. The real test will come later. As various analysts have noted, the next time Cano is eligible to play, he’ll be 39, and won’t have faced MLB pitching for a year and a half. For the Mets and their newly replenished coffers, is he worth it? Will Steve Cohen have the chutzpah to cut him a check and send him packing? “So long, Robbie — don’t let the door hitcha on the way out!”
Of course, there’s some sadness to all this mishegas — Cano, in 2020, seemed to have figured things out. He was hitting and smiling, sometimes even running hard. Sure, there was a lingering scent of Jarred Kelenic, but Cano was playing well enough that you sometimes stopped thinking about former Mets prospects and started wondering whether you were watching a Hall of Famer, and whether that Hall of Famer was going to drag the Mets into the playoffs.
Well, that’s not going to happen — in oh, so many ways. Cano seemed like a nice enough guy. Now he’s a suspended PED user. The Mets will save $20 million on him this season, and they won’t need to find him a spot in the field or the lineup. Could the Mets have drawn this up any better? Right now, I think not.