Brett Baty? Don't Hate-y
Yes, it's still far too early to give up on him
Big news: my book is out! It’s called “Only in Queens: Stories from Life as a New York Mets Fan,” and it’s available on Amazon in paperback and e-book format. If you read this newsletter and have fond memories of Ike Davis’ breakout rookie season, I’m confident it’s the book for you, and I hope you’ll give it a look.
If you’re a Mets fan, you’ve got to be an optimist. How could you not be? Watching this team year after year and thinking to yourself, “Yeah…things probably won’t get any better” — who could possibly keep that up?
Yes, optimism is key, and that’s especially true when it comes to prospects. Sure, prospects bring out a bunch of weird beliefs and behaviors; you’ll be talking to some guy who seems like a completely normal person, graduated college about eight years ago, now works as a software engineer for a digital design firm and sometimes comes to pub trivia on Tuesdays, and out of nowhere, he’ll say something like, “Kevin Parada? The hit tool just isn’t there. And I’m sorry, with a frame that projectable with the whip and coil already baked in, there’s not much room in that swing for the power to grow; I really just don’t see the plus-plus hitter they’ve been talking about. Of all the catchers I’ve seen at High-A, he’s probably in the lower 40% in terms of raw batting eye, and don’t even get me started on the defense, you don’t want to know what the proprietary system I invented on a supercomputer that I built in my toolshed says about his pitch framing…”
And of course you can’t get a word in edgewise, but all you want to say is, “wait, aren’t you the guy who thought Mike Trout was ‘a fourth outfielder at best’?”
(My two cents: Kevin Parada is still a really good prospect, and he’ll impress a lot of people in 2024).
I don’t claim to know anything special about prospects, and I don’t think many people who do claim to know something special about prospects are much worth listening to (some certainly are — but not many, and definitely not all!). So with that in mind, let’s talk about Brett Baty.
Baty had a tough 2023. That much is obvious. He started strong, but then slumped for months and was eventually demoted; overall, the tough year has led some people — some toolshed supercomputer people, but also some of us mere mortals — to write him off as another prospect gone wrong.
But it’s far too early for that.
Baty just turned 24 in November. He has played only 32 career games at Triple-A. After his demotion this past year, he batted .298/.388/.625 with 10 home runs in 26 games for Syracuse. Baty can clearly hit. That’s not to say that he’s certain to continue hitting at the big league level, but those numbers and that beautiful swing and raw power can’t just be written off after less than a full season.
But this isn’t just about Baty: this stage of a career is too early to give up on anyone. Baty has played 119 games in two partial seasons. It’s far too early to make an informed judgement. Careers can go all sorts of intriguing places even after two (or more!) rough seasons at the start.
Consider:
Michael Conforto went through a debilitating slump in 2016, his sophomore season. From May 1 through the end of the season, including a demotion to the Minors, he batted .174/.267/.330 with eight home runs in 88 games. Then, in his next five seasons with the Mets, he batted .259/.364/.473, averaging 30 home runs per 162 games.
Wilmer Flores had a .631 OPS in his first two partial seasons as a Met. In 2015, it rose to .703, and in 2016 and 2017, it was .795 and .788. Flores hit at least 16 home runs in each of those seasons. He has a .794 OPS since leaving the Mets, and he’s coming off a career year with the Giants, batting .283/.355/.509 with 23 home runs.
Jarred Kelenic looked dreadful to start his career, batting .168/.251/.338 over his first 147 games. But in 2023 his OPS rose to .746, and for some stretches, he looked completely dominant at the plate — like when he hit a 482-foot home run at Wrigley Field during a game that I was working, part of a stretch of four homers in four days, and induced a facial reaction that was downright cartoonish. Now the Braves have traded for him in hopes that they can fully bring out the talent he’s been teasing. Being the Braves, I’m sure they will.
José Ramírez batted .239/.298/.346 over his first three partial seasons (180 games). Since then, he’s batted .284/.362/.520, averaging 30 home runs and 27 steals per 162 games.
Mike Schmidt batted .197/.324/.367 through his first two partial seasons (145 games). He’s a Hall of Famer.
Justin Turner had a .684 OPS through his age 28 season. In 10 seasons since then, he’s batted .293/.371/.486, with 179 home runs over the span. Apparently, the Mets may want him back.
Howard Johnson had never hit more than 12 home runs or stolen more than 10 bases in a season until 1987, when he was 26. Suddenly, over the next five years, he hit 157 home runs and stole 160 bases.
Aramis Ramirez batted .239/.290/.364 over his first three seasons (163 games). Over his next 12 seasons, he batted .290/.348/.515, hitting 330 home runs for an average of 39 per 162 games.
Derrek Lee batted .227/.305/.384 in his first three seasons (233 games). He didn’t break out until his age 24 season, when he batted .281/.368/.507 with 28 home runs. That kicked off a 10-season span over which he batted .292/.378/.521 and cleared the fence 270 times.
Adrián González batted .229/.272/.401 over his first two seasons (in, granted, a smaller sample size than Baty). Then he reached his age 24 season and began a ten-year stretch during which he batted .292/.366/.501 with 283 home runs — which, unfortunately, didn’t quite continue with the Mets.
Gil Hodges batted .236/.307/.359 with 12 home runs in his first three seasons in Brooklyn. His Hall-of-Fame career lasted 14 more seasons, during which he batted .277/.363/.498 with 358 home runs.
Duke Snider, Hodges’ teammate and a fellow Hall of Famer, batted .243/.290/.399 in his first two seasons. He batted .297/.383/.545 with 402 home runs over the 16-year remainder of his career.
Max Muncy, more recently than those Brooklyn Dodgers, batted .195/.290/.321 over his first two seasons. He didn’t break out until 2018, his age 27 season, when he hit 35 home runs with a .973 OPS. Over the past six seasons, he’s hit 175 homers.
Miguel Tejada batted .226/.286/.373 over his first two seasons. At age 25, he hit 21 home runs with a .751 OPS. The next season saw him kick off a seven-season stretch during which he batted .297/.351/.498 with 206 home runs.
Carlos Delgado batted .194/.300/.378 with 12 home runs over his first three seasons. Then, in 1996 (his age 24 season), he kicked off a 14-year stretch over which he hit 461 home runs and batted .283/.386/.551. And man oh man, did he have one heck of a swing.
Raúl Ibañez batted .241/.295/.383 over his first five seasons. He batted .288/.351/.484 over his next 10.
Albert Belle batted .220/.264/386 with eight home runs over his first 69 career games, encompassing his 1989 and 1990 seasons. He broke out at age 24 and batted .298/.374/.572 with 373 home runs over his next ten years in the big leagues.
Rusty Staub is a Mets legend who had 500 hits for four different teams and 292 career home runs — and over 239 games in his first two seasons, he batted .221/.296/.322.
Jay Buhner batted .216/.299/.413 in two seasons through age 23. From 1989 through the end of his career, he hit 297 home runs with an .860 OPS.
Jim Thome batted .228/.285/.330 in 67 games over his first two seasons. In 20 years after that, he batted .278/.405/.560 with 609 home runs.
Brooks Robinson, despite his elite defense, didn’t start his career as a great hitter: he batted .232/.281/.313 in his first four brief seasons. After that, though, from 1959 through 1971, he batted .277/.331/.430 with 228 home runs.
George Foster wasn’t at his best for the Mets, but after batting .235/.282/.372 in his first four seasons, he batted .292/.367/.534 with 232 home runs from 1973 to 1981.
Nelson Cruz batted .231/.282/.385 with 15 home runs over his first three seasons (145 games). Since then, he has an .868 OPS — and he’s hit 449 home runs.
Matt Williams hit 378 home runs and compiled 46.6 career bWAR, but first he batted .195/.244/.367 in 136 games across his first two seasons.
Paul Konerko batted .214/.275/.326 in 81 games over his first two seasons. After that, he batted .285/.361/.504 from 1999 to 2012, hitting 415 home runs over the span.
Harmon Killebrew batted .224/.289/.378 from ages 18 to 22. From 23 to 35, he hit 504 home runs and put up a .923 OPS.
Brandon Phillips batted .206/.246/.310 over his first four (short) seasons. He broke out at age 25 and hit 160 home runs over the next eight years, posting a .767 OPS.
Lance Parrish hit 324 home runs, but first he batted .216/.257/.425 over his first two seasons.
Again, this isn’t just about Brett Baty. But it certainly applies to him.
I’m not comparing Baty to any of these players in particular, and I’m certainly not saying he’s going to turn into Mike Schmidt. In logical terms, my point is this: failing to get into a rhythm on offense early in one’s career is neither necessary nor sufficient to determine that a prospect has failed. Some prospects start hot and then fall backward (Gregg Jefferies). Sometimes they start at the bottom and slowly but surely move upward (Ramírez, Schmidt, Rusty…).
Baty might end up joining Jefferies and Lastings Milledge and Fernando Martínez and many others as prospects who showed enormous potential without fully putting it together. Or he might be the Hodges/Muncy/HoJo type, where the talent takes a little while to come together then finally shows up. I’m not doing this to make a prediction (although I do think Baty will figure it out and have a strong season in 2024; there’s my prediction if you want it). I just want to emphasize a point.
The point is this: Baty might be a bust, or he might be a superstar-in-waiting. He’s probably somewhere between the two extremes. But there’s still a lot of becoming to happen, and wherever Baty is destined to end up, it’s far too early to say that he’s already gotten there.