Contract Extensions for Everyone
The Mets should hand out more contracts like Jeff McNeil's new deal
To the news that the Mets have signed Jeff McNeil to a four-year, $50 million extension with a club option for the 2027 season, there’s only one thing to say: if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em!
McNeil has been a fantastic Met, and that doesn’t seem particularly likely to change. At $12.5 million a year, he’s a bargain: everyone knows how he hits, but he can also play good defense in both the infield and the outfield. This is a good deal because the Mets get to keep a good player — but it’s also a good deal because the process behind it is impeccable. It’s the kind of thing the Braves keep doing, and part of the reason they’re shaping up to be (sigh) such an intimidating opponent for years to come.
Every few weeks, it seems, the same story comes out:
BRAVES LOCK UP BRICKLE
ATLANTA — The Braves have agreed to a twelve-year, $24 million contract extension with center fielder Walton Brickle, a source confirmed Tuesday. Coming off a .332/.421/.597 season with 39 home runs and 37 stolen bases, Brickle, a five-time All Star at age 21, will donate $16 million to the Braves Foundation, the source added.
It’s the Breaking Bad meme over and over: “They can’t keep getting away with it!” Spencer Strider. Michael Harris II. Sean Murphy. Austin Riley. Ozzie Albies. Ronald Acuña Jr. They can’t keep getting away with it — but they do.
Which brings us back to (Elton John voice) McNeil and the Mets. Four years, $50 million, plus a club option, for a great all-around player coming off a batting title? A guy who’s batted .311 or better in four of his five seasons? That’s fantastic! That’s a Braves-type deal, a contract that’s perfectly timed to maintain long-term stability on the roster while not going overboard and locking the Mets in with an expensive player who will age badly.
It's the kind of deal that almost never gets done, because most players good enough to deserve a contract like this one are so in-demand that teams need to overpay for them. On the open market, a player identical to McNeil would have gotten more money or years, probably both. But this time, the factors lined up perfectly.
If McNeil’s contract is a sign of where the Mets’ process is headed, it augurs well for what comes next. The Mets should lock up everyone they possibly can, and be prepared to hand out extensions like candy the moment they see potential. First, lock up Pete Alonso. Luis Guillorme, honestly, should also get an extension; not an expensive one, but he’s a valuable player and the Mets should keep him around. Lock up Daniel Vogelbach, who’s an excellent DH and bench option. Then the front office should have its checkbook in a holster, ready to come out. Francisco Alvarez comes up and mashes for a few months? Lock him up. Brett Baty? Same thing. Joey Lucchesi and David Peterson look like they’re turning corners? Get them signed.
That’s not to say the Mets should go crazy and spend for no reason. But they should also consider the risk and reward. Inexpensive deals don’t really have any downside, so if there’s any significant upside potential, they’re probably worth making.
If Daniel Vogelbach is crushing the ball to start 2023, and the Mets hand him — bear in mind that these contract values are completely hypothetical, I have no idea what either of these players would actually cost — a five-year extension worth $30 million, what’s the worst-case scenario? He’ll stop hitting well, and they’ll have $6 million a year wasted for a few years. That’s not that bad! It’s certainly nowhere near as bad as the best-case scenario is good: Vogelbach continues mashing against lefties like he did in 2022 (.261/.382/.497) with 30-homer power over a full season. That’s certainly an upside worth the risk of wasting $6 million a year — roughly 1.3% of the Mets’ 2023 luxury tax payroll.
And if Luis Guillorme keeps looking strong in 2023, what’s the harm in giving him a five-year, $25 million extension? Worst case: $5 million a year for an elite defender who doesn’t hit much. Best case: $5 million a year for an elite defender who’s also a good contact hitter, and who could benefit from MLB’s new rules against the shift. Again: why not?
Imagine if, early in their careers, the Mets had signed Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard to extensions like the ones the Braves gave Spencer Strider. They would have gotten some dominance, some solid seasons, some mediocrity, and some time lost to injuries. Regardless of the setbacks those pitchers faced, the Mets would have gotten lots of seasons worth more than $15 million a year (the AAV of Strider’s extension). And they would have gained extra time before each player hit free agency, added space to negotiate future contracts, and made clear to free agents that they were a team looking to win and willing to pay. For all that, $15 million a year is more than worth paying.
Locking up McNeil — the blood and guts of the team, the classical hitter who’s never an easy out — is a great start. Now the Mets should keep going. It seems that they’ve started acting on a simple truth: good players are good to have, and once you have them, it’s worth paying to keep them around.
True, with Cohen the money doesn’t matter. But given that, why tie up your roster when you can wait and know more. You can be flexible as circumstance allow.
I’ll go with your inflation idea - fair point. Each guy signs a 10 year extension after they’ve show success in their first 3 months: Harvey $10M per for 2013-22, wheeler $10.5M per for 2014-23
DeGrom $11M per year 2015-24
Matz and Syndergaard $11.5M per year 2016-25
Lugo and Gsellman $12M per year 2017-26
Probably no different results for the team from 2013-2019 because they had all the guys under control. I don’t think theyd have been able to trade Harvey in 2018 with $40M+ left on the books, but if it were a Cohen like owner all that time, they’d DFA him and eat it. 2020 might have gone better. We’d have a healthy Wheeler and DeGrom anchoring a rotation with Matz, Lugo and Gsellman. Would we have picked up Porcello and Wacha? Whether or not they had traded for Stroman tge orevioys season (provably not) they’d have had a problem when Syndergaard went down with TJ surgery, they probably would have brought up Peterson. Who after his success over a couple of months that year would now be locked up at about $13M per year until 2030. Might they have made the playoffs with Wheeler added to that team? Probably.
But by 2021 Wheeler there but no Stroman. Matz there, but no Taijuan. Did we ask get Carrasco in the Lindor deal? (Did we even make the deal? Did Cleveland want Gimenez and Rosario with long term contracts in excess of $80M? And then when DeGrom and Peterson go down, bring on Megill and a few months later extend him at $14M per year until 2031 and still need to pick up Rich Hill? I don’t think the season ends any better.
And no way we bring in Scherzer for 2022. And Verlander and Quintana and Senga now. We’d be heading in to 2023 with a rotation of Wheeler, at a great deal, and big question marks with DeGrom, Noah, and Matz, Peterson and MeGill.
And we’d be paying huge money to JD, and Dom, and Conforto. Where’s it end?
How many seasons would they have had better pitching staffs than what they ended up with? How many World Series would they have won?