Don't Bet the Farm
Don't Bet the Farm
Francisco Lindor will cost so much in a trade that it's hard to see the Mets winning the deal.
If circumstances were different, I’d be thrilled to have Francisco Lindor on the Mets. If he cost nothing but money, I’d be out in the streets with a bullhorn, beseeching the Mets to go all-out for the invaluable shortstop from Cleveland. Francisco Lindor is one of the best shortstops in the game: his addition would make every team in baseball better. He’s a special, special player, and I won’t be accused of denying it.
Unfortunately, circumstances aren’t different. Lindor isn’t a free-agent; he’s still under Cleveland’s control, which means that if the Mets want him to be their shortstop, it’ll cost approximately two arms, a leg, and the Hope Diamond. And Lindor, while he’s valuable, doesn’t justify sacrificing as much as it’ll take to acquire him.
In the same article that quoted multiple sources saying that “Lindor is likely to be dealt before Opening Day, and the Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays and Cardinals are viewed as the strongest candidates to acquire the four-time All-Star,” MLB.com put together a hypothetical Mets/Indians trade. The Mets would get Lindor and Austin Hedges, a backup catcher with a career .612 OPS. The Indians would get Andrés Giménez, Jeff McNeil, and Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Again: if Lindor cost nothing but money, I’d advocate spending several hundred million dollars on him pretty much instantly. But this deal goes far beyond money. It costs the Mets players that money can’t replace.
Jeff McNeil AND Andrés Giménez AND Pete Crow-Armstrong for a year of Lindor? Maybe the trade would be contingent on Lindor signing an extension, but still, that’s almost extortionate. The biggest loss, of course, would be McNeil, who’s a .319/.383/.501 hitter in his first three MLB seasons, well on his way to becoming one of the best hitters in Mets history, and can play infield and outfield competently. Right now, McNeil is the Mets’ best offensive infielder by several miles, and losing him would instantly gut the Mets lineup of a major threat, as well as 90% of Citi Field’s motivational expletive supply.
It’s not controversial to say that McNeil is a vastly superior offensive option to Lindor. The Cleveland shortstop is a career .285/.346/.488 hitter, and is coming off a 2020 season during which he put up a .750 OPS. Even if Lindor can once again reach his offensive potential in 2021, McNeil is better than Lindor’s best — and he’s under team control through 2025. Lindor is one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, but McNeil is so good on offense that even a straight-up, McNeil for Lindor trade would give me pause.
And on top of McNeil, the Indians would take Andrés Giménez, who played stellar defense at shortstop in 2020 and showed some potential on offense as well, AND Pete Crow-Armstrong, a first-round pick whose upside is higher than the mountains beneath which sit the Buddhist intellectuals he admires? Two years after giving up Jarred Kelenic for a suitcase full of steroids and inconsistency, that’s a move the Mets simply can’t make.
Another trade proposal that made the rounds on social media in October would send Lindor to the Mets for Amed Rosario, J.D. Davis, and Brett Baty. Davis is one of my favorite players, and Baty is a thrilling prospect, but even so, gut-wrenching as it would be, I’d make this deal in a heartbeat or two. But would Cleveland? Trade their superstar shortstop, at the lowest his value has ever been, for a 25-year-old former prospect, a DH who had a down year last season, and a 21-year-old who’s played four games in his life above Rookie ball? Surely it makes more sense for the Indians to hang onto Lindor into 2021 and flip him to a contender midseason.
Right now is just the wrong time for a Lindor trade. No team will want to sacrifice major pieces for a player coming off the worst offensive season of his career, and the Indians, knowing that Lindor is worth a major trade haul at his best, should want him to prove his value and increase their return before making a deal. It’s hard to see a window that makes a Lindor trade a win for both teams. Any package the Mets propose that actually entices Cleveland to part with Lindor will be too much for the Mets to give up. Any package the Mets are actually okay with losing, meanwhile, won’t be enough to entice Cleveland to part with their shortstop.
Of course, if there’s some secret pathway way to get it done, then by all means, do it. But that pathway, for now, remains hidden. It would be great to see Francisco Lindor in orange and blue — but not if it means Jeff McNeil, Andrés Giménez, and Pete Crow-Armstrong are wearing a different team’s colors next season.