Don't Wait Around
The Mets have several exciting prospects nearing their debuts. That shouldn't impact their strategy at all.
The Mets have five names in Keith Law’s recently-released Top 100 Prospects ranking: Francisco Alvarez at #8, Ronny Mauricio at #40, Brett Baty at #41, Mark Vientos at #71, and Alex Ramirez at #100. The top four, in particular, have drawd notice among Mets fans: Alvarez, Baty, and Mauricio are also on MLB.com’s list, and Vientos hit 25 home runs with a .933 OPS between AA and AAA last season. All four are projected to be MLB-ready by 2023, if not sooner. They may not all pan out, but at the very least, the Mets have four players likely to debut in the next year or two who will bring major potential — and excitement.
It’s a good thing, though, that the Mets aren’t allowing this group of promising young players to dictate their strategy. For one, obviously, even the best prospects aren’t sure things. For another, though, people tend to forget just how long things take where prospects are concerned.
Some fans have expressed concern, for instance, that James McCann, signed through 2024, will block Francisco Alvarez even after he’s ready for the big leagues. Vientos and Baty, they say, will be blocked by the combination of J.D. Davis, Robinson Cano, and Eduardo Escobar. Both will be ready by early next year, the theory goes; what will they do while these veterans, solid players but probably not stars and definitely not exciting, play out the rest of their contracts?
Here’s the thing, though: even when prospects do pan out, it almost never happens instantly. Look at Khalil Lee. Look at Jarred Kelenic. Look at Casey Mize, Luis Robert, Jazz Chisholm, Vlad Guerrero Jr. Heck, look at Byron Buxton, who was a top prospect back in the first half of the 2010s but didn’t really pan out until last season, and is still just 28.
The same phenomenon has been evident throughout recent Mets history. Some prospects — Pete Alonso comes to mind — pan out instantly. Some, though, take time. Travis d’Arnaud came up in 2013, was mediocre that year and the next, then was excellent (.825 OPS) in 2015. Daniel Murphy came up in 2008 and was excellent, took a major step back in 2009, missed 2010 with an injury, and was great in 2011. Brandon Nimmo came up in 2016 and was okay, then played half a season in 2017 and was better, then finally became an excellent full-time player in 2018. Amed Rosario had an OBP below .300 his first two seasons, but he took a major step forward in his third. Michael Conforto was excellent in his 2015 half-season, dreadful in 2016 after April, and came back to fully pan out in 2017 and beyond. Dom Smith played half seasons in 2017 and 2018 with OPS’s below .700, then was excellent in 2019 and dominant in 2020. Wilmer Flores had a few bad years before settling in as a dependable hitter. Even José Reyes looked like a star in 69 games in 2003, but didn’t have another above-average offensive season until 2006.
Simply put, most prospects take a long time to turn into legitimate big-league players, no matter how good they are. Some guys come up and rake instantly, but it would be foolish to count on that. Even the can’t-miss prospects, the ones on the path to superstardom, can take a year or two to become productive MLB players. Mike Piazza himself came up at age 23 and batted .232/.284/.319.
It might make sense to leave positions open for prospects if A) the prospects were preparing to debut in weeks, not months or years, and B) the Mets were rebuilding, looking ahead towards contention in a few years. That’s what they did in 2013: they weren’t going to make the playoffs, and Travis d’Arnaud was almost ready. So they didn’t go out and sign a big-name catcher, and all d’Arnaud had to do to join the lineup was displace John Buck.
But that’s the opposite of their situation right now. The Mets want to win, and their window isn’t infinite. They can’t afford to wait around. Even if they could, though, it’s worth remembering just how long prospects can take to fulfill their potential. What will be the harm if Francisco Alvarez splits catching duties with James McCann for a year or two, or if Mark Vientos platoons with Jeff McNeil? Nothing, of course. Those actually sound like net positives.
The prospects will get here eventually, and at some point, they’ll probably turn into good players. But that’s still a long way off. Just wait until next year, the saying often goes, and the prospects will finally be ready. But there’s no sense waiting until next year when for the Mets, with a few more roster additions, this year may really be the one.