Finding Buddy Carlyle
The 2021 Mets need a reliever to fill the Buddy Carlyle role — and there are plenty of candidates.
The Mets’ bullpen can usually count on a Buddy Carlyle. Do you know what I mean? I think I do. Basically, because relief pitching is erratic and volatile by nature, the Mets often have at least one guy who comes out of nowhere to be shockingly competent. Like when Buddy Carlyle pitched to a 1.45 E.R.A. out of the bullpen in 2014…or when Sean Gilmartin pitched to a 2.67 E.R.A. in 2015…or when Elmer Dessens pitched to a 2.30 E.R.A. in 2010…or when Scott Rice pitched to a 3.71 E.R.A. in 2013…or when, in 2014 in the same bullpen as Carlyle, Josh Edgin pitched to an E.R.A. of 1.32. Yes, Josh Edgin. See what I mean?
The last few years, though, the Mets haven’t really had their share of Buddy Carlyle imitators. Drew Smith in 2018 might count; the last one before him was probably Gilmartin in 2015. That season, for what it’s worth, saw an onslaught of Buddy Carlyle types. Ironically, Carlyle himself didn’t pitch all that well, even though he got the first save of his career at age 37 on Opening Day. But Hansel Robles’ E.R.A. was 3.67; Logan Verrett’s was 3.03; Erik Goeddel’s was 2.43; in 17 appearances, Jack Leathersich’s was 2.31. It was a bursting bonanza of bullpen beneficence, if you’re into that kind of thing.
But since then, the Buddy Carlyles have all but disappeared. Where have they gone? There are all kinds of jokes I could make — “Where has Josh Edgin gone? I heard he was hanging with Sean Gilmartin’s wife…at the Capitol on January 6th!” — but the answer is that sample sizes for relief pitchers are just too small to predict anything with real certainty. So where all the Buddy Carlyles have gone since 2015? They just haven’t happened to pitch well when they played for the Mets. That’s how it goes with bullpens. If they were calm and consistent, the word “bullpen” wouldn’t want to make you headbutt a brick wall.
Which brings us to the 2021 Mets. I say that because aside from a few solid bets and a few long shots, this Mets bullpen is basically a bunch of Buddy Carlyles, which makes for a season that — well, let’s be optimistic and call it “exciting.”
Let’s stipulate that Seth Lugo, Edwin Díaz, and Trevor May will all be pretty good. Besides the relievers who are actually starters competing for the last rotation spot, you can basically sort the rest of the bullpen into four categories:
Guys who haven’t proven themselves yet, but look pretty good and throw hard
Guys who used to look pretty good and throw hard
Left-handed relievers who have had Buddy Carlyle-like seasons in the past
Daniel Zamora
(Interregnum: it’s unfortunate that the Mets reassigned Trevor Hildenberger, because he’d be a great way to throw some variation and surprise into this bullpen crew, and he’s looked great this spring. The other day, I compared Hildenberger to putting a Dropkick Murphys set into the middle of an AC/DC cover band contest. But the actual Dropkick Murphys will play a livestreamed show next week, and have a new album coming out in April, so I’ll be okay.)
So what does this group of guys have in common? They all — and I mean every single solitary one of them —could be the next Buddy Carlyle.
Seriously. Pick a name in the Mets bullpen. Sam McWilliams. Yennsy Díaz. Jeurys Familia. Jerry Blevins. Robert Gsellman. Aaron Loup. Jacob Barnes. Dellin Betances. It could be any of them. For different reasons, they’re all eminently capable of emerging from declines or purgatories or stalled ascents and having Buddy Carlyle-like seasons, coming out of nowhere to dominate in relief.
Of course, that doesn’t mean it will happen; every single one of these pitchers could also be terrible in 2021. But the short-term volatility inspired by the small sample sizes of relief pitching also has an upside: over a shorter sample, it’s far easier for an average pitcher to look like a great one. Call it the Buddy Carlyle Phenomenon.
I know where my money is for Buddy Carlyle of 2021: Miguel Castro. Granted, that’s based on one Spring Training inning, but Castro looks absolutely unhittable. He looks like Matt Harvey at the beginning of 2013, when it was an open question whether he would ever allow another run. He’ll have his bad moments eventually — maybe sooner rather than later — but he certainly looks good enough to be dominant.
But it doesn’t have to be Castro; it could be anyone. Relief pitching is inconsistent and impossible to predict — but sometimes that’s a good thing. That inconsistency can turn an average pitcher into, for a season or two, a superstar. It seems impossible, but it happens all the time. Just ask Buddy Carlyle.