Francisco Álvarez is not our savior
Álvarez might turn into a superstar, but even superstars aren't usually superstars immediately
The Mets have a catching problem. There’s no way around that. James McCann is batting .174, and Tomás Nido is batting .216. There’s not much they can do about it: They cut Travis d’Arnaud in 2019, then didn’t sign JT Realmuto when they had the chance. They could also really use a Josh Thole/Ramón Castro/Brian Schneider type, a backup catcher who’s never going to be a star but gets a hit every now and then. But they didn’t acquire one in the offseason, so they’re left with in-house solutions.
One of those solutions took a step towards reality earlier tonight, when the Mets promoted Francisco Álvarez to Triple-A Syracuse. Álvarez, in case you’ve been hiding in a Willets Point chop shop somewhere, is the best catching prospect still in the minors, the top prospect in the Mets’ system, and a 5’10’’ concentrated bundle of pure power. Álvarez has a .921 OPS with 18 homers in 67 Minor League games this season, and he’s certainly alluring. So much so, in fact, that the voices are getting louder: Just bring him up! No need for Triple-A — the Mets have a problem, and Francisco Álvarez is the solution.
Here's the thing about prospects, though: No matter how exciting they are or how good they end up being, they very often don’t fulfill their potential immediately. Francisco Alvarez should come up when he’s ready to come up — not just to facilitate his long-term development (although that’s important too), but because, quite simply, if he’s not ready to come up, then he just won’t hit well. Álvarez will eventually be a great hitter, but no matter how much potential he has, it’s unrealistic to expect him to come up and immediately hit like Johnny Bench or Mike Piazza.
To be clear, Álvarez might be ready. Maybe the Mets could bring him up tomorrow and he would bat .300 with 30 home runs the rest of the season. But that won’t happen if he’s not ready for it yet. Those who want to see Álvarez called up immediately seem to treat it as a binary choice: Either Álvarez comes up and helps the Mets in the short term, or he keeps hitting well in the Minors developing for the long term. But those aren’t the actual options available. If the Mets call Álvarez up before he’s ready, it won’t just mess up his long-term development (although that will also happen): He also won’t hit well in the short-term.
That’s not even to mention the fact that even when prospects are ready, they often need some time stinking it up in the majors before adjusting to big-league pitching. It can just take a while to become a true big-leaguer, even if a prospect has done all the developing they’re going to do. Travis d’Arnaud had a .548 OPS in 2013, his first half-season; a .718 OPS in 2014; and an .825 OPS in 2015. Everyone will remember that Mike Trout batted .220 in his first partial season in 2011. Byron Buxton, a former top prospect, took about seven years to pan out. Michael Conforto started hot in 2015, took a step back, started hot in 2016, took another step back, and broke out in 2017. Adley Rutschman came up earlier this year; he’s batting .213. Some prospects come up and immediately start hitting — call it “The David Wright archetype” — but it’s nowhere close to the norm.
It's not a valid argument, then, to say that the Mets should bring up Álvarez whether he’s ready or not because they need to prioritize the short term over the long term. “Screw development, the Mets need him now” doesn’t make sense; if he’s not ready in the long term, he won’t hit in the short term either. The only valid argument for calling Álvarez up immediately is that he’s already ready. He’s done developing, the line of thinking goes; he’s finished growing as a player, he’s fully mature, and he’s ready to hit in the major leagues.
But is that true? Call-up advocates say it is — but do they know? Do they believe that he’s ready, or do they just really really want him to be ready? None of us are professional player evaluators with access to a fully-staffed analytics department. I don’t know player development well enough to know whether Álvarez is ready yet, but the Mets seem not to think he is, and I certainly can’t claim to know better than they do.
And even if he is — there’s still absolutely no guarantee that he can come up and end the Mets’ catching woes (or, for that matter, play catcher well enough). This is common knowledge: No matter how good a prospect is or how ready they are, there’s very often an adjustment period during which their MLB numbers are completely mediocre. He may be ready, and it may even be best for his development to bring him up tomorrow and start getting him playing time — but that doesn’t mean he’ll instantly hit like a star. He almost certainly won’t.
Maybe Francisco Álvarez can come up and immediately make his name among superstar offensive catchers. Maybe he can join the Mets and instantly start hitting like Mike Piazza or Johnny Bench. But it’s important to remember that Mike Piazza batted .232 in his first partial season, and Johnny Bench batted .163.