Fun With First Basemen
The Mets have two excellent first basemen — and both need to play, even though there's only one first base.
Hours before today’s game against the Marlins, Dominic Smith was scratched from his spot in left field with what reports called “general wrist soreness.” Already, the injury — and especially the way the Mets are describing it — seems like a red flag. I can only think of two circumstances when it teams describe injuries as “general;” either A) Smith played a few too many rounds of Mariokart last night, or something like that, and his wrist is really just a tad sore, or B) Smith’s wrist is home to a rare venomous tropical worm, and the Mets are describing it as “general soreness” because it makes everything a lot simpler for everyone involved.
Obviously, Mets fans hope it’s the former while worrying it’s closer to the latter. But that’s how injuries tend to go: they’re completely unpredictable, for better or worse. Around the Mets, it always seems like the worst-case scenario is coming true, but I remember an afternoon in 2019 when the Mets announced — this is completely true — that Jacob deGrom was going on the injured list because his elbow was “barking.” Before Mets fans could collapse into puddles of despair, deGrom returned as if he’d never been gone and resumed his journey to a second consecutive Cy Young.
“Barking elbow” and “general soreness” strike me as two peas in a pod, in terms of injury descriptors. They’re either minor or soul-crushingly major. As far as Smith goes, we’ll just have to wait and see. Smith apparently did defensive work earlier today, so for now, the evidence points to minor — but around the Mets, injuries can go from fine to bad to worse faster than you can say “just wear this walking boot for two weeks.”
Regardless, though, Smith’s injury highlights the Mets’ first-base situation, or more accurately, their first baseman situation. The Mets have two first basemen, both of whom need at-bats, and there’s only one first base. Smith can play left field, but only just.
So what are the Mets to do? Put simply, assuming Alonso and Smith are healthy, both have to play. Alonso has slumped, but he’s on track for a monstrous rebound in 2021. Smith, meanwhile, is a good enough hitter that the Mets can stomach his first baseman’s defense in left field. In other words, despite the complaints in every direction from fans, the way the Mets have planned things out seems pretty much correct.
Is Alonso due for a rebound? Absolutely. In 2020, Alonso fell victim to twin enemies: a short-season slump, and a shockingly low BABIP. Alonso’s 2020 BABIP was only .242, a 38-point fall from his already low .280 mark from 2019. There’s no reason for Alonso to have a low BABIP: even last season, he ranked in the 73rd percentile in baseball in exit velocity and the 84th in barrel rate (a “barrel” is MLB’s classification for a ball hit particularly well). In 2019, he was even better — in the 97th percentile for barrel rate and the 76th for exit velocity — and his BABIP was still a below-average .280. All this is to say that so far in his career, Alonso may actually have been unlucky — and if he can reverse that trend, he’ll be a sight to behold.
From the beginning, Alonso has reminded me of Carlos Delgado, and here, the comparison is very specific. Mets fans will probably remember Delgado as a .270 hitter with absurd power. It’s true that Delgado often hit .270 or so — but four times, in 1998, 2000, 2003, and 2005, he pushed his BABIP above .325, compared to its usual spot between .280 and .300. In those four seasons, Delgado batted .292, .344, .302, and .301. His OBPs and Slugging Percentages similarly rose from his career averages.
Can Alonso do the same? Can he hit the ball hard enough, and strike out rarely enough, to enjoy the occasional .300 season? We’ll see. But at the very least, he’s certainly capable of hitting the ball hard.
Smith, meanwhile, is similar, but different. In 2020, Smith was in the 86th percentile for barrel rate, the 83rd for hard-hit rate, and the 66th for exit velocity. Like Alonso, Smith can hit the ball hard enough to succeed. The difference is that last season, Smith’s BABIP soared to an unsustainable .368. While Alonso was unfortunate, Smith got lucky.
Smith’s .993 OPS in 2020 might be his high-water mark. But that doesn’t mean he’s doomed to fail going forward. Both Smith and Alonso have swings that can carry them to long-term success. The National League will likely add a Designated Hitter in 2022, and Alonso can handle that job with aplomb. Until then, Alonso can play first and Smith can handle left, and the Mets’ lineup will hum with energy. That is, until someone’s elbow starts barking.