I Can't Believe I Have to Say This, but Brandon Nimmo is Good

In Nimmo, the Mets have an outstanding outfielder. Why do so many Mets fans not recognize that?

Some questions are difficult to answer. Sometimes, there are no cold hard facts, so an issue comes down to personal biases, anecdotal evidence, and semantics. Often, there’s simply no one true answer, so debates can continue for years, with evidence piling up on both sides but no resolution in sight.

Yes, some questions are hard to answer. Meanwhile, other questions are very easy. The question of whether Brandon Nimmo is good falls squarely in the latter camp.

I’m surprised I still have to say this, honestly. What with Moneyball and Sabermetrics being popular and batting average going the way of the fax machine, I thought we were all on more or less the same page regarding the basics of how you decide what makes a good baseball player. But it turned out, as it so often does, that there was vastly more disagreement than had any right to exist. 

“He’s a fourth outfielder!” people say gleefully about Nimmo. “Why do Mets fans like him? He can’t play defense! He doesn’t hit for power! He strikes out too much! All he does is get on base!” 

I’ve tried explaining that they’ve just answered their own question — that it’s sort of like saying “Why do people like chocolate cake? All it does is taste incredible and make everyone happy!” But still, there are doubters. So let’s take a comprehensive, balanced look at exactly why Brandon Nimmo is an excellent starting outfielder.

Noah K. Murray — USA Today Sports

After playing two half-seasons in 2016 and 2017, Nimmo broke out in 2018. At age 25, he appeared in 140 games and slashed .263/.404/.483, for an .886 OPS. His .404 OBP ranked second in the National League; his OPS ranked 11th. He walked 80 times, and led the league in hit-by-pitches with 22. Baseball Reference put his Wins Above Replacement at 4.2, while Fangraphs put the number at 4.5. His OBP was the highest full-season mark a Met had posted since David Wright’s .416 in 2007.

In 2019, Nimmo seemed to take a step back. It turned out, however, that he’d been playing hurt for most of the first month of the season before landing on the Injured List. When he finally came back healthy, he was superb: he batted .261/.430/.565 in 26 games, for a .995 OPS. 

In 55 games in the shortened 2020 season, Nimmo was excellent again. He batted .280/.404/.484, for an .888 OPS, even higher than his 2018 mark. That .404 OBP ranked ninth in the National League. He hit eight home runs, which put him on pace for 22 over a full season. He even cut his strikeout frequency down to 19.1%; his previous career low had been 25%. While it only came in a 55-game sample, 2020 was probably Nimmo’s best offensive season.

Most people, even Nimmo’s skeptics, recognize that he’s good enough — at the very least — on offense. People seem to have more problems with his defense, which is somewhat fair. In 2020 Nimmo played mostly center field, and he struggled. He was worth -4 Outs Above Average, according to Statcast, among the worst centerfield marks in the major leagues. But 2020 was a small sample, and in previous, full seasons Nimmo has been a completely satisfactory defender. Here’s his season-by-season OAA from 2016 to 2019: 0, +2, +5, +3. Being a full-time center fielder might have been too much for Nimmo to handle this year, but he’s always been an average to above-average corner outfielder. With his bat, that’s more than enough.

Here’s something that will really stick in the Nimmo-skeptics’ craw: the Mets should get Nimmo signed to a contract extension ASAP. They should have done it before the 2020 season when his value was at its lowest, as I wrote at the time. But there’s still room for them to make a deal for surplus value. After a shortened 2020 season, there’s uncertainty around most players in the game, and how real their 2020 numbers were. But if Nimmo puts up another full-season OBP above .400, as he’ll have every opportunity to do in 2021, there won’t be any doubt anymore, and his price will skyrocket. 

Nimmo isn’t exactly a conventional offensive outfielder, which might be why some Mets fans are so reluctant to acknowledge his talents. He’s not a sweet-swinging line-drive machine; the Mets have Michael Conforto for that. But he gets on base better than almost anyone, and hits for his share of deceptive power. There have been complaints about his defense, but besides a shortened 2020 season during which he was forced to play out of position, Nimmo has always been a perfectly adequate defender.

He’s an excellent player. He should be a Met for a long time. Somehow, some Mets fans don’t recognize that, but I hope I’ve done my part to bring that number down.