Did anyone notice, in the weeks and months after James McCann returned from injury, that behind the utterly unimpressive statistics, it seemed like he was actually hitting the ball pretty well and getting really unlucky? Probably not, because it’s hard to notice something like that when the statistics are that unimpressive. But I did.
McCann, it seemed, just couldn’t buy a hit. He was hitting line drives that should have been singles or doubles, but they were finding their way to outfielders. He was actually swinging the bat pretty well — with absolutely nothing to show for it.
So I looked. And actually — it’s pretty true.
From 2021 to 2022 (albeit in a small sample):
McCann’s strikeout rate is down more than 4%
His average exit velocity is up almost 2.5 mph
His average launch angle is up from 9.3 degrees to 16.8
His barrel rate is up 2%
His line drive rate is up almost 6%
His fly ball rate is up more than 11%
His ground ball rate is down almost 17%
His soft contact rate is down 4.5%; his medium and hard contact rates are both up
So why is James McCann, as of Wednesday morning, batting .198/.257/.282? It’s pretty simple: his BABIP is .247, and he’s not hitting home runs. His walk rate is also down, but that has nothing to do with a batting average that should be a lot higher than .198.
Obviously, batted ball stats aren’t everything. But it’s really strange to see a player striking out less, hitting the ball harder and higher, hitting fewer ground balls and more fly balls and line drives — and seeing his OPS fall more than 100 points, accompanied by a BABIP down nearly 60 points.
So what’s the problem? Luck and chance, those wreckers of all but the best-laid plans? It really does seem like that’s a big part of it. It’s easy to think of McCann as a ground-into-double-play machine — but his ground ball rate is down seventeen percent. Last year, he wasn’t hitting the ball well. This year, something else is happening.
What’s the fix? Hopefully, the laws of statistics. McCann keeps playing, the bad luck turns to good luck, and the slash line climbs ever higher. What a boon it would be for the Mets if James McCann suddenly found his stroke and went on a month-long tear.
Is it likely? Probably not, only because McCann has struggled so much at the plate for so long now that a sudden turnaround would be a reversal of fortune to a degree we’ve rarely seen. But the simple fact is that James McCann is hitting the ball a lot better than a true-talent .198 hitter. Those turnarounds can happen: just ask JD Davis, who turned his .683 OPS with the Mets into an .863 OPS in his first month as a Giant. James McCann is a hitter primed for a breakout. Even if it’s just a modest one, for the Mets, that could be huge.