J.D. Davis Is Fighting for his Mets Career
After a down year in 2020, if Davis wants to be an everyday player, he needs to find his stroke.
This one hurts.
In 2019, J.D. Davis, with his wacky dugout antics and bruising swing, became one of my favorite Mets. When I graduated from college that June, I wrote “J.D. Davis is a professional hitter” on my graduation cap. In August, I watched as he worked the count against the team formerly known as the Indians, then crushed a ball off the fence for a walk-off win. Davis finished the year with a .307/.369/.527 slash line and 22 home runs, which amounted to a 137 OPS+. The ball trembled when it approached his bat: he finished in the 90th percentile in exit velocity, the 92nd in expected slugging percentage, and the 99th percentile in expected batting average. He wasn’t much of a defender: he was worth -7 Outs Above Average in left field. He was okay at third base, worth +1 OAA in 64 attempts, but the Mets had lots of infielders already.
As the 2020 season approached, Davis’ legend only continued to grow. Along with Dom Smith, he appeared on “The Cookie Club,” a weekly SNY web series. Before the world shut down, he provided a memorable afternoon of TV viewing when he, Smith, and Jeff McNeil allowed themselves to be simultaneously mic’ed up during a Spring Training game. He did things like leave his Instagram account dormant for months, then post a picture of himself being measured for pants.
Davis is a joker, a clown, and a heck of a ballplayer. Which makes it all the devastating that his window with the Mets may have closed.
Unfortunately, right now, Davis just doesn’t have a regular role as a Met. For one, in an ideal world, he’d be either a first baseman or a DH. He improved at third in 2019, with a positive OAA, but then regressed in 2020, posting -3 OAA at third and -2 in left. With work, he might be able to become an average third baseman, but that hasn’t happened yet.
Davis is best suited for an American League team, where he would make a perfect everyday DH. The National League, of course, is widely expected to add the DH after the 2021 season, so if the Mets can keep him around until then, he’ll once again have a role that fits perfectly. But where can the Mets put him while they wait for the DH rule to take effect?
In 2019, the Mets could stomach Davis’ defense if it kept his bat in the lineup. But Davis regressed on offense in 2020: his stats declined to .247/.371/.389. That was still good for a 112 OPS+, and ordinarily, a .371 OBP would be, at the very least, acceptable. But for a player without a real defensive position, it wasn’t quite enough.
The million-dollar question, which will largely determine Davis’ future, is this: does his true offensive output look like his 2019 season or his 2020? If Davis can hit like he did in 2019, with genuine power and elite exit velocity, the Mets should be able to find a role for him: .895 OPS’s don’t grow on trees. But if he’s more like his 2020 self, with an OPS between .750 and .800, he might not have a place on the Mets roster.
It’s hard to say what his future statistics really look like. His 2019 season was powered by a .355 BABIP, which seems completely unsustainable — but then again, he hit the ball harder than just about anyone. In 2020, he still hit the ball pretty hard, although not like he had the previous year, and his BABIP declined declined by almost 40 points. Considering his career so far, Davis seems like a high-BABIP hitter, so his numbers will likely improve in 2021 — but precisely how much, and where they’ll land, it’s impossible to say.
In 2021, Davis’ usage will look something like this: first bat off the bench, and occasional starts in left and at third. It’s hard to see him getting playing time beyond that unless something unexpected happens. Right now, he’s fourth — at best, and maybe lower — on the Mets’ outfield depth chart, and probably the second backup infielder off the bench. He’ll get his share of at-bats as a pinch-hitter, but it’s hard to find a rhythm when you’re only taking an at-bat every other day or so.
Davis, right now, is in a tough situation. If he’s going to be an everyday player, either his offense or his defense needs to improve, and fast. Fortunately, J.D. Davis is a professional hitter. If I have to guess, he’ll extricate himself from his current sticky situation the old-fashioned way: with wisecracks, wacky dugout antics, and enough exit velocity to send tidal waves across Flushing Bay.
Not so sure I agree. I like Davis and I think they Mets do to. He's cheap and he hits and he can learn to play 3rd. You need to develop players in the majors too. Additionally, as mentioned above, hes an important part of the chemistry and while I' see your point I think he will the 3B.