Joey Lucchesi Belongs in the Rotation

He's not ideal, but he's better than Tylor Megill

Big news: my book is out! It’s called “Only in Queens: Stories from Life as a New York Mets Fan,” and it’s available on Amazon in paperback and e-book format. If you read this newsletter and enjoy submerging yourself in random Mets seasons, I’m confident it’s the book for you, and I hope you’ll give it a look. It includes stories about both Valentino Pascucci and Richard Hidalgo, as well as various other players.

---

Joey Lucchesi isn’t perfect. I’m happy to concede that, even as one of his biggest boosters. He’s shown flashes of brilliance, but has never managed to pitch at his best for extended periods of time; he gets hit hard the third time through the order and beyond, which means he often struggles to get deep into games; there’s not much in his Statcast data that particularly stands out.

Lucchesi isn’t perfect. And yet, I’m struggling mightily to find a reason he shouldn’t take Tylor Megill’s spot in the rotation.

After Megill’s outing vs. the Braves on Saturday, he has a 5.20 ERA on the year. In nine starts, he’s gone six innings exactly twice. He’s shown no signs of putting his sometimes-excellent stuff to consistent use. There’s lots of talk about his elite extension and pitch shapes and the like, but the simple fact is that four seasons and 60 starts into his career, he has a 4.79 ERA. He doesn’t go deep into games. He doesn’t avoid walks or induce soft contact. The best his ERA has ever been in a season is 4.52.

Lucchesi’s ERA has been lower — four times.

Sure, two of those were abbreviated seasons, but there’s no avoiding the fact that Lucchesi’s 4.14 career ERA is worlds better than Megill’s. The Mets are in a Wild Card race, and as intriguing as Megill’s stuff is, they can’t put him on the mound every fifth day and pray that he finally figures it out. All that matters is that at this moment, Lucchesi, at least based on his track record, is a better pitcher than Megill, and it’s not all that close.

Let me mention this before we go any farther: none of this is to say that Lucchesi is good. He’s struggled in the Minors (although he’s often had a tough time down there, citing his struggles with the automatic ball/strike system). At his best, he’s probably a fourth or fifth starter. If the Mets want to trade for Tarik Skubal, they have my blessing. Skubal is better than Lucchesi. No argument there.

But again, let’s live in the real world and ask the only question that matters. Who gives the Mets a better chance to win every fifth day: Megill or Lucchesi? If you think it’s Megill, that’s fine — but beyond vague assertions about “stuff” and “makeup” and things like that, I haven’t yet seen a convincing reason.

To wit:

ERA over last 10 MLB starts
Megill: 4.64
Lucchesi: 3.53

ERA since 2021
Megill: 4.79
Lucchesi: 3.93

Career ERA+
Megill: 85 (pending Saturday’s start)
Lucchesi: 98

WHIP since 2021
Megill: 1.41
Lucchesi: 1.29

Average innings per start
Megill: 4.94
Lucchesi: 5.02

---

Look: I get it. Lucchesi makes me nervous too. He’s not an ideal starter in a playoff-aspiring rotation. The vibes, such as they are, don’t seem great for him. But again, sticking strictly to what’s observable and quantifiable in real life: right now, he’s a better pitcher than Megill. Or, at the very, very least, there’s no reason to believe that Lucchesi is worse.

Maybe I’m wrong; maybe Lucchesi will return to the big league mound sooner or later and it will turn out that his best days are behind him and he’s not an MLB starter anymore. But we won’t know that until it happens, and until then, there’s no reason to think it’s the case. Hopefully, this will all become irrelevant quickly, as the Mets trade for a starter who makes the Megill/Lucchesi question moot. But as things stand right now, the question is hardly a question at all. Lucchesi is the better pitcher, and until that’s no longer true, he’s the one who should be starting every fifth day.