Keith Hernandez is an Easy Hall of Famer
Keith Hernandez is an Easy Hall of Famer
The fact that Hernandez gets so little Cooperstown chatter is utterly absurd.
Keith Hernandez is the greatest defensive first baseman of all time. That’s easy to overlook, because Hernandez is already remembered for so many other things: Seinfeld, his moustache, his SNY commentary, being the soul of the 1986 Mets. But Hernandez is also the greatest — literally, the greatest — defensive first baseman of all time, and not enough people seem to know that.
Consider the data. Hernandez’s Total Zone Runs as a first baseman is 120, the best ever. From 1978 to 1988, he won 11 consecutive gold gloves. He was better than anyone at making outs at bases besides first, the most impactful plays first basemen can make: when Bill James studied outs assisted by first basemen at second, third, and home, he found that Hernandez’s teams — the Cardinals then the Mets — had far more of those outs than anyone. In 1979, the league average was 22; Hernandez’s Cardinals had 44.
“First base is not normally a vital defensive position,” Brian Kenny wrote in Ahead of the Curve. “Hernandez, though, was a transformational player. He turned first base defense into a weapon few teams in the history of the game have ever even approximated. Being the best ever at anything on the field should count for a lot in a Hall of Fame case.”
It’s true, and it jibes with all of Hernandez’s most memorable highlights. There are all the spectacular, diving plays at first base — but even more than those, what’s the Hernandez highlight that everyone remembers? Keith charging a bunt with runners on first and second, charging so hard that he had the entire field covered, and getting the ball to third base so quickly that a sacrifice bunt towards the third baseman turned into a double play.
Critics will point out that Hernandez’s career dWAR is only 1.3. But here’s the thing: dWAR clearly doesn’t know how to value Hernandez, maybe because a lot of his value comes from something so niche and unimportant for most fielders: the specific bases at which he assisted on outs. For that matter, dWAR has no idea how to measure first basemen, period. Ozzie Smith holds the record for career dWAR with 44.2. A pretty solid defender like Trevor Story has 10.6 career dWAR. Robinson Cano has 7.4. Jonathan Schoop has 6.9. Wilson Ramos has 5.8.
The highest dWAR for a first baseman since the turn of the 20th century is 1.7. Yes, that’s right: according to dWAR, the best-fielding first baseman since 1900 was less than 1/3 as valuable on defense as Wilson Ramos. Hernandez’s dWAR, 1.3 (second only to Kevin Youkilis among first basemen since 1900), makes him almost four and a half times less valuable on defense than Wilson Ramos.
It’s especially hard to disagree with the last part of Kenny’s statement. Being the best defensive first baseman ever is a big deal. There’s only one, after all. There are only nine positions on the baseball field, which means there are only nine “best positional defenders ever” in MLB history. It doesn’t seem like too much to ask that those nine players be Hall of Famers.
It’s at least debatable if a player is putrid offensively, but makes up for it on defense. There was a lot of debate about Omar Vizquel, for instance (before the domestic abuse and sexual harassment allegations against him came out last year): Vizquel was one of the best defensive shortstops ever, but had a .688 career OPS. Even with his completely unimpressive offensive numbers, though, Vizquel was probably on the path to induction before his awful behavior sunk him. He got as high as 52.6% in his third year on the ballot.
Keith Hernandez was far better than Omar Vizquel. Hernandez won an MVP in 1979, when he batted .344. He had a career .384 OBP and a 128 OPS+. In other words, Keith Hernandez was probably the greatest defensive first baseman of all time — and was also 28% better than league average on offense during his career.
Here are some players with an identical or lower OPS+ than Hernandez: Sammy Sosa, Rickey Henderson, Jim Rice, Roger Maris, Johnny Bench, Roy Campanella, Yogi Berra, Dale Murphy, Bobby Abreu.
Hernandez is the best defensive first baseman of all time, and is in the same offensive tier as Roger Maris, Johnny Bench, and Sammy Sosa. He’s also a baseball and cultural icon, former Mets captain, MVP, and World Series winner — but those shouldn’t even matter. The best defensive first baseman ever, and an outstanding hitter as well — what more could the Hall want?
Gil Hodges got in. Now the Hall of Fame can keep the momentum rolling for underappreciated New York first basemen and induct Keith too. Really, it shouldn’t have taken nearly this long. He’s Keith Hernandez! Induct him immediately. And hell, if he asks, help him move.