It is done. Buck Showalter is out, David Stearns is in, and the 2023 Mets have ceased to exist, dispersed into the wind until they’ll reconvene in 2024 hoping to right the ’23 group’s shortcomings. Gary, Keith, and Ron have packed it in for the Winter, and Citi Field, spared the indignity of an extra half-inning of Mets/Marlins suspended baseball, is all set for the season, preparing for whatever novelty golf outing, music festival, cybersecurity convention, or soccer game is coming next.
All of which means…it’s time to revisit the predictions I made at the beginning of the season and see how I did. Accountability! The Mets were held to it, and so held shall be I. So let’s take a look.
Brett Baty will either bat .280 or hit 20 home runs, or both
This did not happen.
But!
Let me take the opportunity to revisit a key point about prospects:
They sometimes take a while.
Baty started the year well, then hit a really, really rough patch; he was demoted, came back, looked solid, but still didn’t hit all that well. I still could not be more excited about his future. In fact, I’ll happily move my prediction forward to 2024, this time even more confidently.
Remember the early trajectory of Michael Conforto’s career? He started strong in 2015, hit like a superstar in April 2016, was horrid the rest of 2016, then came back in 2017 and had the best season of his career.
Remember how Travis d’Arnaud started out? He had a tough 30 games in 2013, a fairly ordinary season in 2014, a strong season in 2015, then got a lot worse in 2016. He didn’t reach his full potential until 2019, and from that season through the end of 2022 he had a .774 OPS and averaged 26 home runs per 162 games.
Sometimes things take a while. That’s all I’m saying.
David Peterson will be…good
More than you might think!
Peterson’s 5.03 ERA on the season was not good, and you may quote me on that. But here’s how his season went.
On May 15, he had an 8.08 ERA. He was sent down. After he was recalled, from June 27 through the end of the season, he made 19 appearances (13 starts), and pitched to a 3.38 ERA.
So, did David Peterson have a good year? Not really. But there’s clearly still a good pitcher in there somewhere, and the Mets need to take a long look at what they can do to put that good pitcher on the mound every fifth day.
Francisco Lindor will hit 30 home runs
He did indeed.
Lindor was worth 6.0 bWAR in 2023. He went 30/30. His OPS was the highest it’s been as a Met. He hit his 200th home run, surpassed 40 career WAR, and upped his career steals total to 156.
It’s the long way of saying, in about 15 years, we may be having some interesting debates about Francisco Lindor and a certain balloting process, with which I’m sure you’re familiar.
Danny Mendick will have one incredible three-week stretch
This did not happen, but I maintain that he seems like the type.
Kodai Senga will underwhelm in the first half, but redeem himself in the second
Kodai Senga in the first half: 7-5, 3.31 ERA.
Kodai Senga in the second half: 5-2, 2.58 ERA.
The “underwhelming” period was shorter than I predicted – it was basically March and April, when his ERA was 4.15. But having taken in his first full season, I think it’s safe to say that my general point – that he was a really good pitcher who was going to be excellent once he fully adjusted to MLB – was absolutely correct.
One Buddy Carlyle-type reliever will emerge
In other words, there was going to be one reliever who came out of nowhere to put up a really strong season. So was there?
Not really.
Funny enough, though, there was a Carlyle-type figure in the rotation: Joey Lucchesi, who pitched to a 2.89 ERA over nine starts. I’ve been high on Lucchesi since he first got here, and after what he did this season, it seems like he has absolutely earned a look as a potential starter in 2024. Plus, he survived the Uber accident.
James McCann will make Mets fans angry
“Angry” was the wrong word; I should have known better than trying to predict fans’ emotions, rather than the actions that precipitated them. But hear me out.
James McCann in 2023 (69 games): .222/.269/.377, six home runs, 0.6 bWAR
Omar Narvaez in 2023 (49 games): .211/.283/.297, two home runs, 0.0 bWAR
So, was McCann good enough to make Mets fans angry? Probably not. But he was good enough to be better than Omar Narvaez.
J.D. Davis will do the same
Again, “angry” is the wrong word – but again, hear me out.
In the first half, J.D. Davis batted .277/.350/.450. He cratered in the second half (although he rebounded in September). But it seems undeniable that the Mets’ season would have looked different with an additional .800-OPS bat in the lineup for the first half of the season.
***
I’d like to also take a moment to highlight some other things that I got right:
Tommy Pham was indeed an excellent addition
Francisco Alvarez completely held his own as a catcher
Bryan Reynolds’ OPS fell to .790
And there it is: that’s all for predictions, at least for a while now.
Happy offseason!