No Jeopardy Here

The Mets haven't quite found their stride. They'll find it eventually.

What is a sufficient sample size in baseball? I mean that as a genuine question, not a Jeopardy! response, although I would love to see the clue that would have this answer on Jeopardy! “It’s a certain amount of games that allow discerning fans a chance to realistically understand the true-talent output of a baseball player.” Half the audience would be asleep by the time the host finished reading the question, and that’s not even to mention what would happen if the host happened to be Joe Buck, who, the New York Post reported yesterday, will take a turn guest hosting on the show. I’ve never quite understood the intense hatred people seem to feel for Joe Buck, but putting him at the host’s podium on Jeopardy! feels sort of like having Ozzie Osbourne perform a private concert for Queen Elizabeth. 

It would also be an awkward question to ask on Jeopardy!, because there’s not one single true answer. What’s a sufficient baseball sample size? For a team? Probably 100 games or so. As we saw in 2020, 60 games certainly isn’t it: for goodness’ sake, in 60 games, the Marlins made the playoffs. What nonsense. Talk about a Jeopardy! clue with only one answer: that’s almost too easy. 

“The Marlins making the playoffs in a 60-game season after having a COVID outbreak that almost shut down the league.”

“What is nonsense?”

But really, there are all sorts of different answers. For a team, it’s a high number. For a pitcher, it’s probably lower: maybe fifteen starts? For a hitter, who knows — 200 plate appearances? For a lefthanded relief specialist — never, maybe? A full career? 

Whatever the answer to the question is, though, one thing is certain: the 2021 Mets haven’t reached it yet. They’ve played 11 games and won seven of them: they look good in some ways and bad in others, but the only thing that’s certain about them is that all of that will change.

The good: Brandon Nimmo is getting on base like Ted Williams, Jacob deGrom looks like Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman has been dominant and proud, and the rest of the starting rotation looks okay too. I am also happy to report that Joey Lucchesi is on his way to becoming my weird favorite Met Of The Moment (MOTM, pronounced “modem”), the way Pedro Beato did in 2011. His delivery, the life on his fastball, the “churve”...he’ll figure things out and have a fine season, and I’m looking forward to his time as a Met.

But with the good, of course, comes the bad: the Mets have five starting position players with an OPS below .700. All five — James McCann, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, Dom Smith, and Michael Conforto — are players you’d expect to come in far above that mark, or in McCann’s case, at least somewhere above it. The good: Edwin Díaz has looked dominant, and Miguel Castro has been excellent as well. The bad: Trevor May hasn’t quite settled into a groove yet, Jacob Barnes has allowed five runs in two innings, and Dellin Betances won’t be healthy for a while.

So here’s the real question: which of these will continue? On that front, the Mets have good news. Their offense will certainly pick up: it’s no sweat to project that when the season ends, at least four of those five hitters will have OPS’s significantly higher than .700. deGrom and Stroman won’t keep their E.R.A.’s at 0.45 and 0.90, of course, but they can continue to be excellent. The Mets bullpen can stay good too: May will get better, Betances was never necessary, and between Lucchesi, Trevor Hildenberger, and Robert Gsellman, the Mets have every chance to find another excellent relief option. 

There are really only a few areas in which it’s very safe to expect the Mets will get significantly worse. There’s deGrom and Stroman, but even when their E.R.A.’s finally regress toward the mean, they can still pitch effectively. Taijuan Walker probably won’t keep up his 2.61 E.R.A. all season, but so far he’s looked strong. Brandon Nimmo obviously won’t bat .447/.543/.526 all year, but he’s always been an on-base machine, and there’s no reason that can’t continue. 

Really, the Mets’ offensive woes so far aren’t bad news at all. The offense hasn’t come close to hitting a rhythm, and somehow, the Mets are 7-4 and lead the division, and look like a winning team. Imagine what they’ll look like when the offense starts clicking and the secondary bullpen options pull themselves together.

In other words, while we haven’t seen nearly enough baseball to know how good the Mets will be, it’s clear that at the very least, they’ll do okay. Or, as it would go on Jeopardy!:

“The Mets have been disappointing so far.”

“What is nonsense?”