The Carlos Carrasco Fan Club
Fans are returning. Carlos Carrasco isn't.
Fans are coming back to Citi Field. That’s one of those sentences that, a year ago, wouldn’t have made much sense. “Coming back from what?” you might ask. “Where have they been?” The only thing worse than the year of baseball that we’ve missed, I suppose, is that by now we’ve been locked down so long that going back a year doesn’t even take us back to a time when all of this was mercifully unfamiliar.
It’s been a long time, and it’s not over yet, but still, fans are coming back, which is at least a bright spot. The announcement came yesterday from the Mets, Yankees, and the state of New York: on Opening Day, Citi Field will open at 20% capacity, with a negative test or proof of vaccination required for entry. These capacity limits, the announcement was careful to note, can change over time as COVID rates fluctuate, and it seems likely that as more vaccinations are delivered, the stadium capacity limit will slowly but steadily increase. As it happens, I’ll get my second vaccine dose tomorrow, so this couldn’t come at a better time.
What could have come at a better time, on the other hand, was yesterday’s other nugget of news: that Carlos Carrasco, previously on track to play an enormous role in the rotation, had torn his hamstring and would miss six to eight weeks. Carrasco had already been dealing with elbow soreness, but had seemed, in an optimist’s mind, on track to pitch the first week of the season. Ironically, it turned out not to be the elbow that sunk him: Carrasco threw a batting practice session without trouble, but then tore his hamstring during a conditioning workout afterwards. It’s the kind of injury that, you can’t help but think, might have been avoided. “Nice throwing, Carlos,” someone could have said as Carrasco left the mound. “You know what? We’re going to take it easy on the conditioning today.”
Before his injury, Carrasco and Marcus Stroman shared the number-two starter mantle in the Mets rotation, and losing a #2 starter means a major step back. The Mets employ three pitchers who have starting experience, but who aren’t quite ideal big-league starters, for one reason or another: David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, and Jordan Yamamoto. Lucchesi and Yamamoto both had down years in 2020, although both have potential to be solid pitchers; Peterson was excellent last season, but he faded down the stretch, and could probably use just a little bit more time in the minors to sprinkle the final bits of seasoning over his development.
The plan before Carrasco’s injury had been for one of the three to make the rotation, and the other two to be relegated to either the bullpen or the minors. Now, we can only assume, two of the three will join the rotation, and the third will move to the bullpen. Even if the Mets wanted to send Peterson to the minors, it’s no longer clear that they have enough pitching without him to justify the move.
Going from one of Lucchesi, Peterson, and Yamamoto in the rotation to two feels like a jarring step, especially if the bad luck of Carrasco’s injury also leads you to invert your entire mental projection system from best-case to worst-case. Before Carrasco’s injury, the Mets had solid starters four out of five days, and on the fifth, whoever was the fifth starter was still pretty good. Now, though, the rotation will include two unproven starters, plus Taijuan Walker, who might not be good anymore, plus Marcus Stroman, who hasn’t pitched since 2019…suddenly, it seems like we’re back to 2020, when the rotation had two members: deGrom and uncertainty.
The important thing to remember, though, is that while things may seem dire, they’re not the same. There’s no Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha on the 2021 Mets. Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha make Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto look like Spahn and Sain. In an ordinary Mets season, the loss of a number-two starter would be a death blow. Under Steve Cohen and Sandy Alderson, there’s at least a tiny amount of depth that will allow the Mets, while certainly stumbling, to continue soldiering on until Carrasco can make his way back.
The big question, since yesterday’s announcement, has been “what are you going to do the first time you get back to Citi Field?” Most people have said something along the lines of “sob.” But I know exactly what I’ll do. I’ll stand in the sun for a while, stare at the field, make my way to the upper deck, get some arancini if the stand, God willing, is still open. Then, Carlos Carrasco or not, I’ll sit down in my seat and watch the Mets play a game, and that will be plenty.