The Eagle and the Smelt
The Mets are reportedly frontrunners for George Springer. I'm overjoyed.
Already this week, two developments have clarified our understanding of what the 2021 Mets outfield will look like.
Ordinarily, that’s the kind of thing you’d expect to hear at the beginning of an E.B. White essay, when two events that seem unrelated and prosaic turn out to mean a lot more. “Two things happened to me yesterday,” he’d write. “First, I watched an eagle dive low over a stream, raising a ruckus as it soared skyward with a smelt in its beak. Then I got a letter from the gravel company.” He’d fill one page after another with beautiful prose, and eventually you’d realize that it was all somehow a metaphor for the fact that sometimes the world opens up and presents you with infinite possibilities, and that’s not a bad thing.
But that’s not what’s happening here. Two straightforward, surface-level events have sharpened our view of next season. First, various reports indicated that the National League plans not to use a Designated Hitter in 2021. Then, Buster Olney reported of the Mets that "I'm just about ready to bet the family farm in Vermont that they're going to wind up with Springer.”
So, no DH, and the Mets a favorite to land George Springer. The Mets outfield, like the infield did several weeks ago, is starting to round into shape.
The Mets already have two excellent corner outfielders in Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto. If they were to neglect to add a genuine center fielder this offseason, Nimmo would probably move to center to start next year, where his defense is worse than in the corners. Dom Smith would move to left, with Pete Alonso slotted in as the starting first baseman. It’s a strong offensive alignment, but not a great defensive one.
If the Mets are to add Springer, however, the entire outlook will change. Springer’s Outs Above Average (OAA) describes him as about average in center. He’s had good seasons and seasons that were just okay, but he can undoubtedly handle the position. Nimmo and Conforto, of course, can obviously handle left and right. Smith and Alonso can platoon at first, with Smith also getting the occasional start in left when Nimmo needs a day off, or taking over in the outfield in the event of an injury.
Among Alonso, Smith, and Nimmo — all of whom are starting-caliber players — there are three plausible defensive pairings at first and left: Alonso-Smith, Alonso-Nimmo, and Smith-Nimmo. Smith and Nimmo are both better against righthanded pitchers than lefthanders; between the two of them, Smith’s numbers drop off less against lefties. Thus, against lefthanders, Alonso-Smith makes sense, although Nimmo could enter as a defensive replacement in the late innings, with Smith moving to first. Even against lefthanded pitchers, Nimmo is also still a fine option.
Alonso, meanwhile, doesn’t have as much of a gap in his numbers against righthanded and lefthanded pitchers. He’s actually been better against righties, so he can start any day of the week. He slumped through part of last season, but still put up an .817 OPS, and was on track for more than 40 home runs in a full season. He’s still a fine hitter. All in all, Alonso, Smith, and Nimmo can split time more or less equally, three players sharing two positions while optimizing platoon matchups on offense. It’s right out of the Gil Hodges managerial playbook, and it also gives the Mets some cushion should someone get hurt.
And of course, this is all not to mention the most exciting thing: the Mets are apparently frontrunners for George Springer, who is fantastic. Springer batted .265/.359/.540 last season, for an .899 OPS with good defense. That’s already excellent, but it’s all the more impressive when you learn that he did it with an absurdly low .259 BABIP. He’s a solid starting option at his worst and an MVP-caliber player at his best. His superb Statcast profile — he ranked in the 92nd percentile of expected batting average last season, and in the 87th in 2019 — indicates that his low BABIP in 2020 is due for improvement. His sprint speed ranks in the 82nd percentile; his walk rate is in the 71st, and was in the 86th in 2019. George Springer is an outstanding outfielder, and if the Mets acquire him — I struggle to even say this, but it’s true — he’ll probably make them an instant contender.
Sure, acquiring Springer will necessitate moving some other parts around the diamond, and slightly cutting down on playing time for Smith, Nimmo, and Alonso. But that’s okay. If Springer becomes a Met, Luis Rojas will have a whole host of ways to put together creative lineups that turn into Mets wins. After all, sometimes the world opens up and presents you with infinite possibilities, and that’s not a bad thing.