The Mets Should Get A Little Stupid

How should the Mets handle the offseason? Don't overthink it: spend a bunch of money, build a powerhouse, and prepare to dominate.

Steve Cohen is probably a smart guy. Sandy Alderson too. Whatever faults each may have, you don’t make $16 billion or play a major role in the baseball administration revolution without being a pretty smart guy. They both know how to handle themselves and handle other people.

The Mets have some smart people in charge — but right now, heading into the 2021 offseason, they should try and check about half their brains at the door. Because what the Mets need at this moment is the chance to be a little dumb.

What does “be dumb” mean? It’s simple: don’t overthink it. Don’t play the value game; don’t hunt for players who might turn into diamonds in the rough. Just go out there, sign the good players, and put a powerhouse on the field.

There’s a time for Moneyball; when you’re the Oakland A’s or the 2012 New York Mets, it’s the ideal strategy. But things are different now. The Mets have half a lineup worth of star players, a frustrated fanbase to please, and an owner with more money than he knows what to do with. Now is the time to dump boatloads of money at stars who will fill out the rest of the Mets’ lineup, Competitive Balance Tax (or whatever it ends up being called in the new CBA) be damned.

At the end of the 2021 season, the Mets had James McCann starting at catcher. Pete Alonso, Javier Baez, Francisco Lindor, and a mix of Jeff McNeil and Jonathan Villar made up their infield. In the outfield, they had Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, and Dom Smith, Kevin Pillar, or McNeil.

Despite the underperformance from several key players, imagine what that lineup could look like if the Mets are willing to get a little stupid and throw some money around:

McCann (C)

Alonso (1B)

Baez (2B)

Lindor (SS)

Correa (3B)(!)

Nimmo (LF)

Marte (CF)

Castellanos (RF)

Matt Yorke/AP

The Mets’ starting rotation, when it was healthy, wasn’t bad: deGrom, Stroman, Walker, Carrasco, Hill. But imagine what the rotation could look like if the Mets balled out in the starting pitching aisle. They could keep deGrom and re-sign Stroman and retain Noah Syndergaard — and add Justin Verlander! Max Scherzer! Robbie Ray! Zack Greinke! And the bullpen...they could keep Aaron Loup and Trevor May, and add Kenley Jansen or Craig Kimbrel or Trevor Rosenthal...the pieces are all there, if the Mets are only willing to pay for them.

The truth is, it’s not that hard to build a really good baseball team. It is hard if you’re trying to build a good team with limitations: no expensive free agents, must keep all draft picks, etc. But if Steve Cohen is willing to open his wallet and spend like a madman, the Mets will be good. They’ll probably be great.

Remember the 2006 season? The Mets already had Reyes, Wright, Pedro, and Beltran; they added Carlos Delgado and Billy Wagner, and had basically won the division by the middle of June. The 2022 Mets can do the same thing. All they need to do is really, fully go for it.

Now, this isn’t a critique of analytics. It’s good to be smart and make good decisions, and analytics facilitates that. It’s merely to say that the Mets should take this opportunity to fully invest in players who are excellent, as defined mostly by analytics but also a little bit of the old-fashioned eye test. Like Nick Castellanos. While he’s riding a likely-unsustainable .340 BABIP this season, he’s been an excellent hitter for long enough that he can pretty reliably be counted on to keep it up. Starling Marte — his .369 BABIP is even less sustainable, but he’s also been an above-average hitter for the better part of a decade, and you can’t BABIP your way to 47 stolen bases.

Or maybe the ideal target is neither of them; maybe it’s a trade, as long as the Mets don’t sacrifice one piece of their core to bring in another. Maybe the Mets can grab Jose Ramirez from Cleveland to pair with former infield partner Lindor, or nab Bryan Reynolds from the Pirates; they could trade for Cedric Mullins, or grab Jesse Winker from the Reds. I haven’t thought these individual hypothetical deals through well enough to evaluate them individually.

Here’s my point: the Mets can become a powerhouse, so they should. They should frighten opposing pitchers at every spot in the lineup. All it will take is buy-in from Steve Cohen, Sandy Alderson, and whoever they hire to run baseball operations. Right now, while the N.L. East is bad and the Mets have money, they can seize a golden opportunity: go all-out. Bring in the superstars who will make the lineup truly fearsome. Spend a bunch of money, build a lineup full of boppers, and cruise through the division like a bulldozer.