The Mets' Top Priority Should Be Obvious
J.T. Realmuto's price will be astronomical. The Mets should be thrilled to pay it.
Steve Cohen has taken over the Mets, and already, there’s tremendous debate among fans as to where he should direct his billions. Some say that starting pitching is at the top of the list, and advocate signing Trevor Bauer; some point to shortstop and a trade for Francisco Lindor. Some point to center field and highlight George Springer, and others point out that the Mets don’t really have a catcher right now.
The Mets have all kinds of upgrades to make, and lots of different options for all of them. But one target stands out — by a mile. J.T. Realmuto should be at the top of the Mets’ target list, and they should be all but willing to write him a blank check.
I was once fairly bearish on Realmuto, who, after all, will be 30 years old in 2020. Realmuto is one of the best catchers in baseball, and hits the free-agent market among a relatively light catching class; the demand for him will be enormous, and even as MLB owners project unwillingness to spend heavily, he’ll likely earn a contract at least five years long, worth $125 million or more. But look at everything Realmuto brings to the table, and it becomes obvious that his price is one the Mets should be happy to pay.
Start with the obvious: Realmuto is an excellent hitter at a position that doesn’t have many of them. He batted .266/.349/.491 in the shortened 2020 season, with 11 home runs; he even stole four bases in five attempts. Among catchers with at least 40 appearances in 2020, Realmuto’s .840 OPS was second only to Travis d’Arnaud’s .919. No catcher surpassed Realmuto’s home run total; only Salvador Perez matched it.
Of course, there’s always a chance of offensive regression, but Realmuto could also be even better in 2021. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) in 2020 was .307. That’s above the league average of .292, but considering Realmuto’s swing profile, it could improve next year; it was Realmuto’s lowest BABIP since 2015. According to Statcast data, Realmuto’s exit velocity and hard-hit rate were both in the top third of baseball in 2020, and his barrel rate — basically, rate of balls hit particularly well — was in the 88th percentile. Realmuto’s hard-hit and flyball rates both dropped in 2020, which could be a red flag, but it was also less than half a normal season: he might simply be suffering from small sample size.
Realmuto can clearly hit, and what’s more, with the likely impending introduction of the Designated Hitter in the National League, whoever signs him will be able to pencil him into the lineup even if his catching abilities decline with age. But so far, there’s no evidence of that. In fact, his catching abilities are what separate him so much from the rest of the pack.
Simply put, Realmuto might add more value behind the plate than any other catcher in baseball. He’s one of the best pitch framers in the game, and also one of the best at throwing runners out.
In 2019, the latest year for which data is available, Realmuto’s average pop time to second base, 1.89 seconds, was the best in baseball. His pop time to third, 1.4 seconds, also led the league, albeit on only two attempts. His pop time to second has been the best in baseball since 2017. Especially for a Mets staff that’s been victimized by stolen bases, Realmuto’s throwing will be a game-changer. Wilson Ramos, for what it’s worth, ranked 37th in baseball in pop time in 2019.
Last season, Realmuto was also one of the best pitch-framers in baseball, according to Statcast. His strike rate on borderline pitches was 51.9%, fourth in the league; for the sake of comparison, Wilson Ramos, at 44.8%, ranked 57th. Realmuto hasn’t always been quite that good, but since 2018, he’s always been better than league average.
Framing often goes unnoticed, but it’s a game-changing skill. In 2019, Noah Syndergaard pitched to a 5.20 E.R.A. when 47th-ranked framer Wilson Ramos was his catcher. In his 12 starts pitching to 21st-ranked Tomas Nido, not elite but better than average, his E.R.A. was 2.88.
J.T. Realmuto, in short, will be good for the Mets in two ways. For one, he’ll give them excellent offense at the position with the shortest supply. For another, he’ll make the entire pitching staff better. There are risks, to be sure: he’ll cost a lot, and at age 30, he won’t be in his prime forever. But his upside is so high that the risks are more than worth it.
Steve Cohen says he’ll be disappointed if he hasn’t won a championship within five years. He should start by ensuring that for those five years, J.T. Realmuto is his catcher.