The Problem with Bonbons
Why do people talk about them so much, and what do they have to do with anything?
I sincerely apologize that Shea Bridge Report has been off the air since last Wednesday. Having said that, it’s not like I’ve been sitting around eating bonbons. Is that just me, or did every parent born between 1949 and 1977 say that to their children: refer sarcastically to being lazy as “sitting around eating bonbons”? What is it about bonbons, anyway? Come to think of it, what is a bonbon? According to Wikipedia, it’s “a small chocolate confection...are usually filled with liqueur or other sweet ingredients, and sold wrapped in coloured foil.”
So clearly, if nothing else, they’re European. But who was it that actually sat around eating bonbons? I googled it. “Sitting around eating bonbons,” according to Quora, “is a general mid-century to 1970's reference to the chocolates, according to the Urban Dictionary, ‘eaten by housewives while watching soap-operas instead of performing their "given" tasks of taking care of the house.’”
Now Urban Dictionary is involved. Clearly, this goes deeper than we thought. But I digress.
No, rather than sitting around eating bonbons, I’ve been churning out words — or, speaking metaphorically, bonbons — for other publications, while also watching the Mets. So here’s what I’ve been doing since you last saw me.
Take a deep breath
At Metsmerized, I filed a column last week basically urging everyone to calm down. Mets fans are driving themselves crazy based on five — at the time, four — games of the season, which isn’t helpful to anyone. Well, besides fans of every other team, because it’s easier to come out on top when Mets fans are distracted by their own wacky misadventures.
But seriously, it’s been five games, which in the grand scheme of things means absolutely nothing. Over a five-game stretch, Kazuo Matsui can bat .500. Wilson Ramos can hit four home runs. Óliver Pérez can pitch to a 0.73 E.R.A. The sample is so small that it’s absolutely meaningless as to what comes next.
The only reason Mets fans are freaking out right now is that a tough stretch is coming at the start of the season, meaning the numbers you see in the box scores and the standings don’t look good. But still: it’s five games. If you believe that the Mets are going to be a sub-.500 team all season, and that one bad inning proves that Trevor May has completely, irreversibly fallen apart, I’ve got a vacant neighborhood in Queens to sell you.
The Mets are 2-3. Everyone says, this, but the 1986 Mets were also 2-3, then, 19 games later, they were 20-4 and had basically won the division 24 games into the season. Everyone relax. Things can change in a hurry.
And if you can’t relax? Here’s what you do. I call it “The Keon Broxton test.” Think back to the Mets’ 2019 home opener, when Keon Broxton singled in the go-ahead run in a 6-5 win. Does anyone remember that? Does anyone care? Does anyone remember the impact that Keon Broxton had on the 2019 Mets?
I didn’t think so. So take a breath, and relax for a minute.
deGrom
Tom Verducci has a column in Sports Illustrated this week arguing that despite the prevailing narrative, Jacob deGrom isn’t actually an unlucky pitcher. He bases this entirely on one thing: the frequency with which deGrom gets two runs or fewer worth of run support. That rate, he finds, is pretty much average. Therefore, deGrom isn’t unlucky.
At Baseball Prospectus, I have a piece arguing against Verducci’s assertion. For one, run support isn’t the only thing that can make pitchers unlucky: it’s just as hard to succeed with a terrible bullpen as it is with a terrible offense, and Jacob deGrom knows all about terrible bullpens. For another, though, it’s easy enough to check the stats and see that when Jacob deGrom takes the mound, compared to any other Mets starter since 2018, the Mets’ offense instantly contracts by about 20%. Seems unlucky!
It doesn’t take a genius, when you think about it. deGrom has been the best starter in the league since 2018 — his 2.06 E.R.A. in that span is miles ahead of the rest of the pack — and yet, the Mets have a losing record in his starts. So what’s happening? I can think of three things. Either A) he’s not getting run support, B) the bullpen is blowing games after he exits, or C) the defense is allowing unearned runs that ruin his starts. All three of those seem unlucky!
So give them a read, and see what you think. I hope you enjoy: goodness knows Mets fans could use some good news these days, with the team in a slump and rain blanketing New York. Except, no, that’s the opposite of my message. Everyone be happy. The Mets are just fine. Have a bonbon.