They'll Be Back
There's no way around 77-85, but the Mets remain poised for great things.
Welcome back! We’re in the offseason now — don’t hate the messenger — so all that time spent watching the Mets becomes time to write about them. Prepare for all manner of coverage: opinions, reporting, features, and anything else you can think of. Hopefully, anyway. Here’s the first entry of the offseason: a wrap on 2021. I’m bullish. I’m a Mets fan; it’s in my nature. Enjoy!
Who could forget how it started?
It was a cold day in New York, at the end of a cold winter everywhere. It was, give or take, around the end of the worst year anyone could remember. But in Queens, things weren’t better yet, even though on the surface, they seemed okay. It wasn’t evident yet, but there were problems bubbling. And as if to drive the point home entirely without subtlety, as if we were watching “The 2021 Mets — A Christopher Nolan Production,” the first news of Opening Day was that it was canceled. The Nationals had COVID. Baseball? Not quite yet.
At the time, it was devastating. A few days later, it was nothing. Time works that way. Opening Day came as it always does, Jacob deGrom went six scoreless innings and left with the lead, Trevor May surrendered the lead, the Mets mounted a ninth-inning comeback and fell short, and the season was underway. It was as familiar as the Mets get — but it was also clear that something was off. Whatever it was, it never quite fell into place.
The Mets, for most of the year, were good, as hard as it is to believe. It wasn’t even that long ago. They started slower than some would have liked, and fell to 12-13 on May 5th, but then reeled off a 24-12 stretch and crested at 36-25 on June 16th. Beset by injuries but still hanging around in first, they won a few but lost a few more, and had a chance to move back to ten games above .500 the day before the All-Star Break. They took a 5-0 lead against the Pirates, but then went silent and lost 6-5. Immediate postmortems of the game called it a death blow, an inflection point for the worse that would come back to haunt us later. Maybe they were right. Maybe it was just another game.
They hung around a little while longer. They won on the last day of July to move to 56-48, five games clear of the rest of the division. Javier Baez, the new addition, hit a home run. Jeurys Familia, Seth Lugo, Aaron Loup, Edwin Díaz, and Trevor May combined for five scoreless innings in relief. Brandon Drury, the sort of anti-David Newhan of 2021 (I know that’s a reference no one will get, but they say write for yourself first), singled to drive in ghost-runner Kevin Pillar in the 10th, and the Mets walked off. Life was good.
Then came August. The Mets went 9-19, and those ten games under .500 matched the 10 games they lost in the standings. There were a few faint glimmers of hope in September — the Mets got within three games of a playoff spot a few times — but the losses kept coming faster than the wins. On September 12th, the Mets were 72-72, and the season could have gone either way. It went badly. They lost 10 of 11, and went from 4.5 games back to 10, and that was that. They beat up on the Marlins a few times to salvage a hint of happiness in the last week of the season, and finished 11.5 games back in the division. The Mets finish the 2021 season 77-85. They sniffed a playoff spot, but no more. Their pitching and offense, it turned out, couldn’t measure up to their sense of smell. Playoff baseball? Not quite yet.
***
Everyone seems to have a take on the 2021 Mets, and a lot of them are decidedly negative. The 2021 team was unsatisfying. Despondent. Dull. Frustrating. Just plain boring. Just plain bad. Pish posh, I say.
The 2021 Mets were unsatisfying? What team were you watching? You didn’t like Patrick Mazeika’s walk-off fielder’s choices? Sean Reid-Foley’s nonsensical, dominant windup? Brandon Drury’s Bambino-esque (.367/.387/.767) pinch-hitting? Miguel Castro’s hints of dominance? The Anthony Banda game? Kevin Pillar returning from a gruesome, face-shattering fastball? Those few days when Billy McKinney could do no wrong? The brief stardom of Johneswhy Fargas? That handful of appearances when Trevor Hildenberger looked unhittable? Tommy Hunter’s mad dash around the bases? Luis Guillorme’s innings on the mound? Joey Lucchesi’s masterful churves?
And that’s just the bottom of the roster. Brandon Nimmo got on base 40% of the time yet again. Francisco Lindor started slow but turned himself around masterfully, putting up an OPS above .800 from June 1st through the end of the season, hitting 20 home runs, and playing what was probably the best defense the Mets have had at shortstop in two decades. Pete Alonso hit 37 home runs with an .864 OPS, and actually played a fine defensive first base. Jonathan Villar came out of nowhere to hit 18 home runs while playing pretty much every position. Javier Baez came over from the Cubs and looked like a superstar, making theatrical plays and seeming to abandon the aversion to selectivity that has held him back his entire career. Marcus Stroman’s 3.02 E.R.A. kept the Mets’ rotation anchored when it lost pieces as the season wound down, and while Taijuan Walker fell to earth in the second half, for the first three months of the season he pitched like an ace and kept the Mets in every game. Aaron Loup — everyone knows what he did. We may never see his like again. And before going down with various confusing arm injuries whose severity could never quite be determined, Jacob deGrom pitched one of the greatest fifteen-game stretches of all time.
Sure, the outcome could have been better. The Mets could have won more games. A few players could have had better years. They have some problems that need fixing; their biggest problem of all is either underperformance or rotten luck, which can really only be fixed by a wing and a prayer. Michael Conforto’s OPS fell to .729, although a .274 BABIP didn’t help. Jeff McNeil’s offensive numbers likewise tumbled. His BABIP fell to .276; it will rise again one day, and you may quote me on that. J.D. Davis put up okay numbers, but his power pretty much disappeared; it turns out he was playing through a hand injury that will require offseason surgery.
The truth about the 2021 season is that for the Mets, it was an ordinary one. The team looked promising to start the year; some key players underperformed; injuries took their toll; the team stumbled and limped its way through the last third of the season. But for all the complaints and angry noises that nothing has changed under new ownership and the Mets are falling apart just like always, this team was different. They were better. The numbers didn’t bear it out, but sometimes that’s just what happens.
Here’s how the Mets looked as they entered Spring Training:
James McCann, freshly signed to a four-year deal, was the starting catcher, with Tomás Nido backing him up.
Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, and a platoon of J.D. Davis and Luis Guillorme made up the starting infield, with Jonathan Villar filling in wherever he was needed.
Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, and Dominic Smith filled in the starting outfield.
Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, and David Peterson made up the starting rotation. Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto could fill in as starters, and Noah Syndergaard was working his way back.
Edwin Díaz was the closer, with Trevor May setting him up. Robert Gsellman, Drew Smith, Aaron Loup, Miguel Castro, and Jeurys Familia filled out the bullpen.
At the trading deadline, the Mets added Baez, worth two WAR in his 47 games as a Met; Rich Hill, who was fairly dependable whenever he started, pitching to a 3.84 E.R.A. as a Met; and Trevor Williams, who was excellent in a mix of starting and relief appearances, pitching to a 3.06 E.R.A.
Critique the outcome all you want, but that’s a damn good group. To turn the 2021 season into a referendum on Steve Cohen’s ownership just doesn’t make sense. Cohen and Sandy Alderson put together a team that had every chance to contend. Injuries took their toll: on the pitching side, the Mets lost deGrom, Peterson, Carrasco, Lucchesi, and Yamamoto for extended stretches, and Syndergaard’s return was delayed until the last week of the season. In the bullpen, Gsellman, Reid-Foley, Drew Smith, Corey Oswalt, and Seth Lugo all missed significant time. On offense, McNeil, Lindor, Conforto, Nimmo, Davis, and McCann all missed at least 30 games.
Of course, there was also underperformance. Díaz was good but not great. So were May and Castro. Conforto, McNeil, and Smith dragged the offense down most of the season, and Lindor had four pretty good months, but two bad ones. Maybe the solution is new players or new coaches; maybe it’s just luck turning around. It’s hard to believe, at the end of a 77-85 season, that the Mets are primed for postseason contention. But we’re heading into the offseason. There won’t be baseball for five months. If you can, wouldn’t you rather believe it?
***
For some reason, some people seem to think that the Mets have something irreparably wrong with them.
This is one of the narratives swirling as the dissections of the 2021 season percolate. It’s nothing about the actual players, their skill sets, or their talent levels; it’s all intangible, the kind of thing that you can’t really prove or disprove, but makes some people feel analytical to say. “This Mets core can’t win together,” the narrative goes. “We’ve tried it; it doesn’t work. Time to tear it down and move on.”
I don’t buy it, for the same reason I wouldn’t have left Ali for dead after his first fight with Frazier. This core has been together for three — count ‘em, three — seasons, and one of them lasted sixty games. In 2019, Marcus Stroman came in from Toronto at the deadline, and the Mets pulled themselves together and went 46-25 after the All-Star Break. Then came 2020; Alonso slumped through most of the short season, Stroman opted out, Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello weren’t who they used to be, and Wilson Ramos and Amed Rosario fell off career years from the seasons before.
Then Steve Cohen bought the team and plugged the holes in the roster, and the team came into 2021 ready to win a division title. We’ve covered what happened there: injuries, underperformance, and bad luck.
So, when people say “we’ve tried, and we’re not winning,” here’s what they’re talking about: the second half of 2019, 60 games in 2020, and 2021. If you include Francisco Lindor as part of the core that doesn’t work, it’s been exactly one season. And here’s what they want to do: tear the team apart, send the players off every which way and start again from scratch years before contractual situations or aging demand it.
Obviously, I don’t buy it. Make moves, of course, but don’t tear things down for the sake of looking like you’re doing something new. Move bad players out; keep the good ones. The Mets have their share of good ones, and “the core can’t win together” isn’t a good enough reason to cast a quality player aside.
I suspect that the narrative has less to do with baseball, and more to do with other things that people don’t like. For some reason, with which I fervently disagree, people just didn’t like the 2021 Mets that much. The team didn’t play that well, but lots of Mets teams don’t play that well; this, somehow, seemed more about the Mets as people. Some people soured on Marcus Stroman for Tweeting too much or having too much fun. Others got annoyed that Pete Alonso and J.D. Davis were too optimistic, and felt too highly about their team chemistry, or something like that. People got mad at Lindor, Baez, and Kevin Pillar for their “thumbs down” scheme, which, frankly, was hilarious. Fans berated Luis Rojas for everything under the Willets Point sun; not being emotional enough, letting his emotions dictate too much of what he did, sticking with pitchers the third time through the batting order, taking pitchers out too soon, pinch-hitting to take advantage of righty/lefty matchups, not pinch-hitting when a lefty was facing a lefty, etc. True story: one game, Rojas got ejected early, and that very game, the very game from which he’d been ejected, people started complaining that Dave Jauss, who took over Rojas’ managerial duties, was showing more emotion that Rojas ever had. After Rojas got tossed, the Mets seemed to take heart from his anger, and mounted an impressive comeback win; Rojas’ critics didn’t seem to notice.
I’ve said this before, but the 2019 Mets might have been my favorite team of all time, and most of them were still around for 2021. How could anyone not love the 2021 Mets? Alonso bashing at first; Baez and Lindor running things up the middle; Villar hitting home runs and going crazy on the bases; Nimmo manning center field and getting on base twice a night...deGrom making 15 dominant starts; Stroman going the entire year, never missing his turn through the rotation, and pitching to an E.R.A. around three; Walker finding his stuff and staying healthy all year; Rich Hill and Tylor Megill filling in as emergency options down the stretch; Aaron Loup accidentally becoming a spokesman for Busch Light; Trevor Williams throwing darts past opposing hitters like Addison Reed...the 2021 Mets had their underperformers, but they also had their share of players it was far too easy to root for.
***
Some of my differences with other Mets fans, I suppose, come down to different styles of fandom. I love the Mets — reminds me of that episode of The King of Queens in which Jerry Stiller’s Arthur says “I accepted this ticket because I love the Mets, and I enjoy the company of mister...uh...Palmer” — so I default to rooting for the players they have. When the players are quirky and funny and full of character — think J.D. Davis, Dom Smith, and various guests on “The Cookie Club;” Lindor, Baez, Pillar, and Villar celebrating exuberantly after big plays on defense; Pete Alonso falling over the dugout railing as he jumps to celebrate a walk-off; Nimmo and deGrom just sort of watching from the sidelines as their teammates get up to all sorts of wacky hijinks — they’re even easier to root for.
It’s always tricky to examine questions of causality. Do fans dislike various current Mets because of the Mets’ performance on the field, or is what seems like personal dislike unrelated to a season of underperformance? I have no idea, but either way, I don’t buy the animosity. If the dislike is personal, unrelated to on-field performance but genuinely about the Mets having bad personalities, then I just disagree. If it’s actually about the team playing badly, meanwhile, I don’t like to get upset about a season whose main drivers — bad luck and injuries — aren’t really anyone’s fault.
But regardless of how anyone feels about it, it does seem likely that there will be at least a few significant differences to the Mets roster come 2022. J.D. Davis reportedly feels like there’s a 50/50 chance he’ll be gone next season. Michael Conforto and Noah Syndergaard will likely receive qualifying offers, and the current feeling, far from evident but definitely not impossible, is that Syndergaard will probably accept his, while Conforto may not. Javier Baez is a free agent, but he came to the Mets at midseason, so he’s not eligible for draft pick compensation if he declines a qualifying offer. Francisco Lindor wants the Mets to sign Baez to a long-term deal, but whether they will remains to be seen. Marcus Stroman will also get a qualifying offer, but he seems certain to reject it and seek a longer, richer deal on the open market. Rich Hill is a free agent, as are Jeurys Familia and Aaron Loup; on the offensive side, so are Jonathan Villar and Kevin Pillar. Along with Davis, Dom Smith could also be trade bait, as could several other current Mets.
Meanwhile, the Mets will likely make multiple additions. They’ll need an infielder, two if they don’t retain Baez. They could — should — target a high-end outfielder (two if Conforto leaves): Starling Marte and (have your jokes ready) Nick Castellanos are two potential targets. If the Mets want to go big on an infielder, meanwhile, there’s Marcus Semien, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, and Kris Bryant; Nolan Arenado even has an opt-out, though after putting up a .790 OPS over the last two years, I doubt he exercises it. Steve Cohen won’t be happy after a 77-85 season; he and Sandy Alderson will be hiring a new President of Baseball Operations. The Mets seem primed to make a big move, or two or three.
All this is to say that the 2022 Mets will look very different than the 2021 team, even if the core group of players will remain. There’s nothing wrong with that, of course; all Mets teams start out looking different than the ones that preceded them, and Mets fans usually grow to love them eventually. I know I will. We’ll see how other Mets fans react to whatever comes our way.
The 2021 Mets will never be winners. That’s the unfortunate truth of it; the record is in the books, and 77-85 supersedes any silver linings the season may have unveiled. But I hope Mets fans realize eventually that the team deserved more credit than it got. When Pete Alonso drives in Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor...when Jeff McNeil gets back to hitting line drives to all fields...when James McCann, baseball Gods willing, finds his stroke again...when Luis Guillorme plays impeccable defense and provides a reliable contact bat; when Carlos Carrasco returns healthy and joins a healthy deGrom and a rested Walker in the rotation; when Drew Smith and Miguel Castro resume their excellent relief pitching...I hope we cast a passing thought back to 2021, and the weird, wacky year that it was.
The Mets season is over now, the records finalized and packed away for posterity. The next time we see the Mets, it’ll be a new year, and we’ll have a new roster and a new CBA. It’s more than four months until the Mets take the field in Florida for Spring Training. But let this carry you into the offseason: they’ll be back, and they’ll be better. BABIPs will rise. E.R.A.’s will sink. The Mets are too good not to be better than they’ve been. Put that in the books.
Baseball will take a few months off, then it will come back. Winter always ends, even if around the Mets, it sometimes takes a few years longer than you hope. But it’s no fun when you’re in it. Even among those many Mets fans who found something to dislike about the 2021 team, I have a feeling they prefer the months the Mets play to the months they don’t. Patrick Mazeika may be a .190 hitter, but a day with Mazeika at catcher is better than a day with no catcher at all.