Throw the Bank at Seiya Suzuki

Seiya Suzuki has been hitting like Mike Trout for the last five years. So why is his projected contract closer to Mike Moustakas?

This isn’t yet another one of those columns about how the Mets absolutely have to, absolutely must, go out and sign Seiya Suzuki. Well, actually, I guess it is, because the Mets really should sign Seiya Suzuki. In part, that’s exactly what this is. The Mets need outfield help. Suzuki can be had at a bargain price. He’s only 27 years old. He’s basically been hitting like Mike Trout for the last five years — he’s even stolen a few bases — and word is he’s a pretty good outfielder too.

So, yes. The Mets absolutely have to, they absolutely must, go out and sign Seiya Suzuki. But I’m also wondering about Suzuki himself. Specifically, I’m wondering about the contract he’s going to command, and why it’s not bigger.

MLB Trade Rumors projects that Suzuki will land a five-year, $55-million deal. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN projects four years, $48 million; FanGraphs is even lower. Meanwhile, over the last five years in Japan, Suzuki has batted .318, averaging 30 home runs a year, with a 1.007 OPS and 6.8 WAR in an average season. For what it’s worth, those numbers are vastly better than Shohei Ohtani’s were when Ohtani signed with the Angels before the 2018 season.

Interlude: I was incredibly enthusiastic about Shohei Ohtani. I wanted the Mets to sign him more than pretty much anything in the world. Told ya! Now I want Seiya Suzuki just about that much. Make of that what you will.

So why is Suzuki’s projected deal so low? An MLB player hitting the free agent market with his numbers at age 27 might land literally the largest contract of all time. Mike Trout signed a 12-year, $426.5 million extension with the Angels during his age 27 season. Obviously, most of what’s dragging Suzuki back is the fact that he’s completely unproven against major league pitching so far. But there’s really no MLB owner willing to look at Suzuki’s performance over the last five seasons and cough up more than roughly James McCann money?

And really, if that’s what his free-agent market looks like, might Suzuki consider taking an unorthodox tack and betting on himself? If Suzuki signed a short-term deal for a higher annual value — one year, $18 million, say — he could spend a season hitting against major league pitching, and then hit the free agent market again, still only 28. If he hit like he has in Japan, he’d have an easy nine-figure contract waiting for him. If he regressed — say he batted .270/.350/.450 with 25 home runs and good outfield defense — he could probably still sign for four years, $40 million...at least.

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The factor that’s really dragging down Suzuki’s potential free agent haul right now is the possibility of a Kazuo Matsui-like implosion. Matsui, you’ll remember, had a four-year stretch of absolute dominance in Japan, batting .317 from 2000 to 2003 with 116 home runs and 98 steals. Then he came over to MLB and never had an OPS higher than .781, which came long after he left the Mets. And his defense wasn’t that good either.

Sure, that’s a possibility. Suzuki’s numbers are far better than Matsui’s were, but still, let’s assume there’s always the possibility of total collapse when moving from one league to another. Having seen what Suzuki can do, no MLB owner will be willing to may more than around $15 million a year for Suzuki’s upside plus that slight risk?

Well, let’s hope there’s at least one MLB owner willing to take the risk: the man who just hired Billy Eppler to run his Front Office. That’s Billy Eppler, the guy who almost singlehandedly willed the Angels and Shohei Ohtani together. Suzuki and Ohtani, obviously, aren’t the same player, or even the same kind of player, just because they both come out of Japan. But after Ohtani, Billy Eppler has a track record of success signing players out of Japanese baseball that’s hard to match.

Now, maybe Eppler sees something different in Suzuki. Maybe he sees a swing that doesn’t work against MLB pitching, or a body that’s going to break down in two years. Hell, maybe he sees signs of early-onset Valley Fever. Who knows? If the Mets — or anyone else — have a legitimate reason for not targeting Suzuki, then by all means, don’t make him an offer, or don’t make him a big one. But Suzuki’s talent is more than evident, and “he’s Japanese, so he might forget how to hit when he gets to America” isn’t a reason not to sign him. Everyone has downside. Just because Suzuki does too doesn’t mean his upside somehow counts for less.

The Mets need outfield help. Suzuki can be had at a bargain price. He’s only 27 years old. He’s basically been hitting like Mike Trout for the last five years — he’s even stolen a few bases — and word is he’s a pretty good outfielder too. So, yes. The Mets absolutely have to, they absolutely must, go out and sign Seiya Suzuki.