Trevor Hildenberger and the Young Core
Or: why the Mets' bullpen needs a dose of Dropkick Murphys
Extensions
I promised it last week, so here it is: my column at Metsmerized, arguing that right now is the perfect time for the Mets to sign Marcus Stroman to an extension. Jon Heyman reports that the Mets also plan to begin extension talks with Francisco Lindor this week. Further along, there’s also a deal for Michael Conforto to consider, and maybe a dark-horse deal for Noah Syndergaard; I advocated last week for an extension for Brandon Nimmo. Then there’s the even younger crew: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith, etc. That’s the only real downside to building a young, homegrown team: eventually they all need new contracts at the same time, and the payroll explodes. As Sandy Alderson said, “at some point even Steve Cohen runs out of money.”
Extensions can work in two different ways. Signed early enough, they can guarantee extended control at a discount for the team, in exchange for stability and likely higher salary for the player. Signed just before free agency, though, they’re really just normal contracts: a way of saying “we know you’ll hit free agency in a few months, but while you’re here, we’d really like you to stay.” They still provide some measure of stability to the player as well, but in the form of not having to move, not having to play the season with free agency on the mind, planning long-term for years with the same team, etc.
Lindor and Conforto are both about to hit the free agent market at the prime of their careers, so the Mets likely won’t get much of a discount on either. Stroman, on the other hand, didn’t pitch last year, so the risk that he’ll regress will probably figure into any contract he signs. Nimmo is two years out from free agency; his value will only go up as he gets closer to the open market.
The ideal solution, obviously, is that Steve Cohen signs every single Met to an extension and keeps the team together for the next decade, and nobody ages or gets injured and Jacob deGrom is throwing 120 by age 43, and the Mets win a bunch of championships and nothing bad comes of it. But in the real world, everyone, even Steve Cohen, has to make choices. What are the right ones? I don’t know, and neither does anyone else. All we can do is make our guesses, hope for the best, and keep watching baseball.
Hildenberger
I’ve been banging the drum for Trevor Hildenberger since December, when I first watched video of his highlights as I prepared for an interview. Yesterday against the Marlins, he began the process of proving me right when he struck out the side in an inning of work, looking nasty and also completely unique.
Hildenberger’s off-speed stuff, when he’s on his game, simply falls off the face of the earth. Yesterday, his pitches — even his fastball — had that same sinking action, bedeviling the Marlins’ hitters as he struck out three in a row.
“When my mechanics and arm path are right, it’s going to be better than when I’m yanking stuff or pulling off,” he told me yesterday, after his outing. His change-up, he said, was doing exactly what he hoped, and exactly what Gary, Keith, and Ron commented on: moving aggressively down and in on righthanded batters, almost like a screwball.
The list of righthanders in the Mets bullpen, for now, isn’t all that varied: it’s basically a list of big guys whose fastballs sit between 95 and 98 miles per hour. Hildenberger, like Chad Bradford in 2006 and Joe Smith in 2007 and all the other nastily strange sidearmers the Mets have had, will make a strong addition to the Mets bullpen — if he continues to prove that his stuff is working the way he likes it — precisely because he doesn’t pitch like everyone else.
What adjustments does an opposing hitter have to make if the Mets swap out Robert Gsellman for Sam McWilliams, or Drew Smith for Miguel Castro, or Dellin Betances for Jacob Barnes? The speed and delivery don’t change that much; it’s just a matter of stepping up and taking a swing. Throw someone like Hildenberger in the mix, on the other hand, and the opposition is put on notice. You’re facing a hard-throwing righty now — but soon, you might see a guy who throws a changeup around 76 miles per hour, that moves like a slider from a lefty.
Right now, the Mets’ bullpen reminds me of a bunch of different AC/DC cover bands. Adding Hildenberger will be like sticking Dropkick Murphys in the middle of the lineup. He won’t just be good on his own; he’ll also be a major shakeup from everyone else. And that’s just what the Mets’ bullpen needs.