My Super-Official Predictions, 2024 Edition
No, I won't stop talking about Brett Baty...or Jett Williams...or Adrian Houser
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It’s that time of year again: We come together to celebrate a tradition as old as time in its second year and gather on a sunny afternoon at a ballpark in Queens as a new baseball season takes flight cancel Opening Day because of rain.
Which means it’s time for the second annual announcement of my impeccably researched, supremely reliable predictions, some of which are based on things like “he seems like the type.” So let’s take a look at how the 2024 season might shake out.
Pete Alonso will have a career year
He seems like the type!
You see this all the time: for some guys, walk years just tend to be big years. It happened with new Met J.D. Martinez in 2017; Manny Machado in 2018; Anthony Rendon in 2019; Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner in 2021; Aaron Judge in 2022; Cody Bollinger and Shohei Ohtani last season…
Of course, sometimes it runs the other way, and walk years turn mediocre, and sometimes it runs neither way, and walk years are regular years. But the walk year factor isn’t the only thing leaning in Alonso’s favor; he’s also due for a big year regardless of his contract status.
Alonso had a down year (for him) last season — because guess how low his BABIP fell? I know my BABIP detractors are rolling their eyes right now, but the fact remains: After three full seasons (excluding 2020) with a BABIP between .274 and .280, Alonso’s 2023 mark fell to … .205.
Two. Oh. Five.
And just so we’re clear: his walk rate and strikeout rate stayed roughly in line with his career numbers. His barrel rate increased from 2022. He batted .217; his xBA was .246. He made less soft contact than in 2022, and more medium and hard contact; he hit fewer line drives but more fly balls, while his ground-ball rate barely changed at all.
Aggregated and averaged, the projections collected by FanGraphs have Alonso batting .248/.339/.505 with between 37 and 42 home runs. Barring injury, I’m fairly confident taking the over on all four of those numbers.
Besides Kodai Senga, Luis Severino will be the Mets’ best starter
This one is all about history. And of course, there’s the caveat that he’ll get injured at some point. But let’s just live in a fantasy world and pretend he won’t.
Severino had a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts during a partially healthy 2022 season. His career ERA was 3.39 before last season’s blow-up. He’s had two top-10 Cy Young finishes. And he looked as good as ever in Spring Training.
He’ll face competition from José Quintana, of course, and Tylor Megill is a dark horse, and who knows what’s going on with Sean Manaea and his whole operation. But Severino has by far the highest ceiling of the group, and I must say, I think he can reach it.
My prediction about Brett Baty has not changed
“Brett Baty will either bat .280 or hit 20 home runs, or both.”
I wasn’t wrong — I was just a year too early.
Laugh at me all you want. I can hear some of you (you know who you are) laughing now. Then come back to me in October.
Baty still has the swing. You know what I mean. The superstar swing. The “hang it in the Louvre” swing. You can’t argue with his Minor League numbers either.
I’ve been very clear about my position on this: Baty is going to be a star. And it starts in 2024.
Francisco Alvarez will have an OPS above .800
This one is as natural as rain on Opening Day.
Alvarez will be a year older and more experienced. He’ll enter the season as the starting catcher. And he’s coming off a season that saw him hit 25 homers as a 21-year-old. I only just thought of this, but I think it’s safe to call this a good rule of thumb: if you can out-homer your age, you’re doing fine.
And — don’t get too annoyed — BABIP! Alvarez’s was .222 last season. That will get better. By how much? Who knows? But he’s due for a fair amount of improvement.
One other thing — last season, from May (once he had settled in after a month of adjusting to the big leagues) to July (after which he seemed to wear down, what with the rigors of his first season of playing everyday in the Majors), Alvarez had an .844 OPS with 19 homers in 66 games. Having gotten used to the Majors and continued to build up his body — and with a more palatable backup behind him in Omar Narváez, meaning Alvarez is more likely to get the rest he needs — who knows how high his bat can fly?
Jett Williams will end the season as a top-20 prospect in baseball
Here’s the thing about Williams: I think everyone understands the speed and the great eye at the plate, and everyone can see that he plays not one but two premium positions. And everyone knows that he has a cool name. But what I don’t think people fully appreciate yet is his bat.
Williams batted .263/.425/.451 in 121 games last season. But the bigger picture sort of obscures the fact that after his promotion to High A in July, he batted .299/.451/.567 in 36 games with Brooklyn, with 18 extra-base hits, including seven homers. That’s a 30-homer pace over a full season. An .876 OPS powered by a lots of walks is one thing. 1.018 is something else entirely.
Now obviously, Williams isn’t projected to be anything close to a 30-homer guy, and he’s not going to sustain that High A OPS over a full season. But I think a lot of prospect people are still treating him as an OBP + speed threat, when all five tools are sort of hiding in the wings — and once they come out into plain sight, as a shortstop/center fielder with some power, average and speed who’s also a huge on-base threat, Williams is going to draw a lot more attention.
Side note: I have similar thoughts on Kevin Parada. He’s fallen out of MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospects, but he put up a very respectable .787 OPS with High A Brooklyn last season. Even that was dragged down by a slow start; from May through the end of July, he batted .282/.350/.478. My prediction: it’s fairly likely that he returns to the Top 100 overall and the Mets top five (right now, he’s at No. 9). Projecting way beyond what’s projectable: if Pete Alonso, God forbid, should leave, could we see Parada become a part-time first baseman in time for a 2025 debut?
Joey Lucchesi will be good (again)
I’ve liked Lucchesi for a while, and after his 2.89 ERA in nine starts last season, I think the rest of you may finally be joining me.
Lucchesi, of course, didn’t make the rotation; he was never going to, in a sort of “Great Guillorme” scenario where it’s just how things were always going to go. Megill was always a prohibitive favorite for the last spot in the rotation. But Lucchesi is still there, ready to go whenever the Mets need him, and he’ll show up sooner or later.
I produced Anthony DiComo’s truly fantastic story on Lucchesi’s offseason, which included nuggets about Chinese medicine, cold plunges, and “strong as a Shaolin monk” massage, among other tidbits. Lucchesi showed last year that he can be a perfectly successful MLB starter. Now he just needs the opportunity, and I’m sure one will come up at some point.
Adrian Houser will be a pleasant surprise
Houser is like Severino in one way, and not like him in another.
Like Severino, Houser has shown that he has the stuff to be a genuinely good Major League starter. Unlike Severino, though, I don’t think many people realize it.
In 2021, Houser went 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA in 28 games (26 starts). But then he regressed in 2022 — which included missing nearly two months with a right flexor strain — and was roughly average in 2023 — which included missing time with right groin tightness and a right elbow effusion.
So again, it all comes down to health. If Houser is healthy and throwing like he can, he can be an above-average starter. When you think of him — or when I think of him — my instinct says “10-10, 4.00 ERA.” But he’s been a lot better than that in the past, and hopefully, he can do it again in the future.
The Mets will flip a reliever at the deadline
There are two sides to this, and I think it’s worth looking at both.
Side one: the Mets fall apart and are 15 games under .500 at the deadline. In that case, this becomes obvious; they’ll flip every reliever they have. The ones I’m thinking of, specifically, are Drew Smith and Brooks Raley.
Smith is in a contract year, while Raley has a few more years of team control, but if Raley is having a strong year at the deadline, that will be a three-year record of success. Left-handed relievers with three-year records of success don’t become available that often.
Brad Hand, I think, is a solid comparison, and in 2018, the Padres sent Hand and Cimber to Cleveland for Francisco Mejia, who turned out to be a bust but was at the time Cleveland’s top prospect.
Obviously, Raley wouldn’t land a top prospect on his own — Cimber was good too — but he could be a very in-demand target if he’s having another good year.
The more interesting scenario is the opposite of the “Mets implode” case — what if they’re at .500 or better, contending for a playoff spot? The reason I say it’s interesting is because of the answer — I think they still might try to flip a reliever or two.
Why? Because relievers are mercurial, and with David Stearns in charge, a bullpen flip could be an opportunity for the Mets to add long-term value for what might not be much of a short-term loss.
You don’t have to look any farther than … last season. The Mets flipped David Robertson at the deadline for two prospects who now rank No. 9 and 20 on their list. Robertson’s ERA was 2.05 at the time. His ERA with the Marlins? 5.06.
So Happy Opening Day to all, and here’s to another season of Mets baseball and all it entails. Baty and Alvarez will mash; Severino and Houser will surprise; and some fun stuff will happen along the way. Enjoy it. You only get one Opening Day 2024, at least until it rains.