My Super-Official Predictions, 2025 Edition
Clay Holmes? Thirty-homer power? Jonah Tong? And ... Brett Baty?
We’re heading toward another Opening Day, and you know that that means: there’s no better time to read about strange and spectacular seasons past. You can find those seasons in my book, “Only in Queens: Stories from Life as a New York Mets Fan.” If you’re the kind of person who has fond memories of Nori Aoki’s Mets tenure, you should give it a read!
When we last spoke, the Mets had just signed Juan Soto. That was a fun night, and it kicked off a series of offseason moves that were nothing short of delightful. Re-signing Sean Manaea at 2:00 in the morning. Bringing back Jesse Winker to provide that angry weirdness that every team needs. Hanging onto Ryne Stanek. Adding A.J. Minter, thus creating one of those relationships that will flip from hate to love faster than anyone can imagine. A long, protracted battle ending in a Pete Alonso reunion.
And now, a few days out, we’re headed for another season of Mets baseball — in every sense of the word. Soto will headline the Opening Day roster; he’ll be joined by Griffin Canning, a scrap heap Stearns signing who appears to have suddenly turned into Nolan Ryan, and Hayden Senger, whose manager at Whole Foods must be of two minds about the whole thing. Manaea, Frankie Montas, Francisco Alvarez, and Jeff McNeil are all injured; in their spots, we’ll get Paul Blackburn, Tylor Megill, Senger, Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña, and probably, somehow, eventually, some strange, vaguely memorable names like Jimmy Yacabonis and Travis Blankenhorn.
As in the 2023 and 2024 editions of my annual predictions, I’m steering clear of the mainstream; you won’t find me saying things like “Juan Soto will hit for a substantial amount of power” or “at some point the Mets will add a player via free agency or trade.” Here at Shea Bridge Report, we stick to the more obscure names, the guys who will be answers to trivia questions in 30 years, the guys who you can mention to your kids if you ever want to hear them respond, “who?”
In that spirit, let’s get started.
Clay Holmes will dominate
Have you seen the way he’s been throwing this spring?
Sure, Spring Training is Spring Training, but man, can Holmes make the ball move in impressive ways. He’s averaging 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings in spring, and really, that just follows up a career in which he’s done nothing but turn in very solid seasons. He’s drawing notice for his new “kick change,” which I think is a fancy name for a change-up with a grip that’s particularly good.
Ideally, of course, he’ll follow the Seth Lugo template, becoming a full-time starter and quickly ascending to Cy Young contender. But let’s not get our hopes up. I mean, we love to get our hopes up — that’s a big part of what we do around here — but I’m not going to write something like “Clay Holmes will win 20 games” and hear about it at every family dinner for the next 30 years, the way I do about my optimism about M.J. Melendez.
Let’s just say that Clay Holmes will be a very solid starter for the 2025 Mets, and while there’s always the chance of an adjustment period as he transitions from the bullpen to the rotation, that’s not in my prediction.
By September, there will be mutterings about calling up Jett Williams and Jonah Tong
What are “mutterings,” anyway? A prediction is meaningless without a definition, so let’s nail this down: what I am predicting is that by August 15, if the Mets find themselves in a tight playoff race (they will), it will be a mainstream Mets fan position that they should call up Tong and/or Williams to provide a spark in the battle for a postseason spot.
That’s sort of just kicking the definitional can down the road, of course; what is a “mainstream Mets fan position”? As much as I hate to say this, I guess it can basically be measured by what a substantial number of the insane people who call WFAN think the Mets should do. That’s the mainstream into which we’ve inserted ourselves, unfortunately. And I’m predicting that by August 15, Tong’s and Williams’ names will be all over the WFAN airwaves.
Honestly, this one almost feels too easy, because it happens every year; you can always find some prospect devotee who is absolutely certain that the Mets will go on a tear if they only follow his secret plan to call up an obscure outfield prospect from Double-A and move him to third base. So let me add a secondary, related prediction: promotions for both Tong and Williams will be at least somewhat realistic by August 15. They’ll both be performing fairly strongly at Triple-A. Will they get called up? Probably not, since the Mets have smart people in charge who understand that prospects aren’t usually saviors and even Mike Trout hit .220 in his first abbreviated MLB season. More likely they’ll end the season comfortably positioned to make the club on Opening Day 2026 and kick off something exciting.
There’s also the Drew Gilbert question: what exactly is his status, and how far is he from The Show? There are injury and performance factors at play, but he’s still a top prospect and a nice toolsy player. I don’t have a prediction here, but I’m excited to see him.
I will regret not making a prediction about Brett Baty
This is, as Michael Scott might say, “a classic difficult decision.” I’ve made predictions about Baty before each of the last two seasons, and they haven’t yet come true. At the same time, though, look at that swing. Look at the Spring Training numbers. He hit his 4th homer of Spring Training as I was writing these predictions.
It’s obvious that the power is there; the only question is whether Baty can finally put it to good use. But I’ve been burned two years in a row, so I’m not going to predict that Baty will either bat .280 or hit 20 home runs or both, even though, eternal optimist that I am, I think he definitely will.
Postscript: he also seems like a superb defender, which I don’t think anyone realized until they saw it in person? He was supposed to be a masher, and I never heard anything about his defense, but then he took the field and started making diving catches and rocketing throws across the diamond, and now he’s switching to second base and looks superb. Nice player, Brett Baty.
The Mets will have three players hit 30 home runs
Can you believe this has never happened before?
Most notably, it didn’t happen at all between 2006 and 2008, even though three different Mets — Beltrán, Delgado, and Wright — all hit 30 twice during those three seasons. Beltrán and Delgado did it in 2006; Beltrán and Wright in 2007; Wright and Delgado in 2008. That’s baseball, Suzyn!
But going into 2025, the Mets have four players on the roster with 30-homer potential. Three of them — Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso — hit 30 last season, while the fourth — Mark Vientos — hit 27 homers in 111 games. Francisco Alvarez would be on the list but for his early injury, which puts a damper on his 30-homer hopes at least for the moment.
I won’t go so far as to predict that all four of them will get there; with injuries and slumps, who knows? But it’s a solid bet that three of them can reach the mark. And heck, maybe Brett Baty will join them.
Jeff McNeil will bat .300
I admit, this one is a reach, and my wife will hate it.
McNeil hasn’t been himself at the plate for two years. But a funny thing happened last season: after hitting .216 in the first half, he pulled things together to bat .289 with a .923 OPS in the second.
.289, of course, isn’t .300. But if McNeil can come out of the second half of last season having figured things out and come into 2025 as the real McNeil, he’s a .300 hitter in his sleep.
One of these David Stearns specials will work out spendidly
So far, I’m looking at Griffin Canning, who is striking out the world in Spring Training and is set to start the season in the rotation. But Frankie Montas is another obvious possibility.
But there’s another name I want to point to: Kevin Herget, who the Mets claimed off Waivers from the Brewers in November. He’ll start the season in the Minors, and throughout his career, he’s been fine but not great — but watch film of some of his pitches, and you’ll see why he’s an intriguing option out of the ‘pen.
Ronny Mauricio will lead the Mets in maximum exit velocity
Honestly, this just seems like the kind of thing he would do.
It’s not quite clear when Mauricio, still recovering from devastating knee injuries, will make his way back to the big league field. But he’s got the kind of swing that sends the ball absolutely flying, as he demonstrated when he came up in 2023 and promptly rocketed a ball at 117.3 mph.
So he’ll make his way back in June or August or whenever and rocket a ball at 119 mph or thereabouts sometime in his first few games. Will it mean anything? Probably not; he’ll still be the big infielder with the crazy swing, who swings a little too much to be a superstar on offense. But still — who doesn’t like a hard-hit ball?