My 2024 Predictions, Revisited
Let's just say you shouldn't put too much stock in them
It’s the offseason — and if you need some baseball content to pass the time, you’ll find some in my book! If you’ll enjoy multiple references to Ramón Castro, it’s just the book for you.
It’s time for some accountability!
Pete Alonso did not have a career year. Luis Severino was good, but he wasn’t the Mets’ best starter. Brett Baty didn’t bat .280 or hit 20 home runs. Francisco Alvarez didn’t have an OPS above .800. Jett Williams isn’t a top-20 prospect in baseball. Joey Lucchesi spent most of the year in the Minors. Adrian Houser wasn’t a pleasant surprise to anyone except opposing hitters. And the Mets didn’t flip any notable relievers at the deadline.
In short, my official 2024 predictions were uniformly, mostly unambiguously wrong. Just call me George Costanza.
Were there a few mitigating factors and qualifiers? Sure. Alvarez looked great well into the season — he was batting .296/.365/.479 at the All-Star Break — before a disastrous drop-off in the second half (although he had a .900 OPS in September — take heart!). Williams was down with an injury from mid-April to August. Lucchesi only got two MLB starts, and looked great in the second, closing out the season against the Braves; he wasn’t good in the Minors, but he’s always had well-documented problems with the Automatic Ball-Strike system. And the Mets didn’t flip any relievers at the Deadline — perhaps because Brooks Raley, Drew Smith, Sean Reid-Foley, and Reed Garrett were all injured when the Deadline arrived.
But let’s be real; my predictions, for the most part, went worse than a Jake Diekman outing that started with men on base.
The one that hits hardest, honestly, is Brett Baty’s failure to launch. It stings all the more because the talent is there. Everyone can see it. Early in the year, over a week-long stretch, he pulled four or five balls into the second deck in right field, all about a foot foul. He flashed his power in that multihomer game in Tampa Bay. He’s got the big bat. He’s got a swing that can do damage.
But I worry he’s turning into Zack Wilson.
A toolsy, talented guy. Has everything; the strength, the swing, the arm, the glove, etc. Looks for all the world like a big-league-caliber player. Dominates the lower levels. But somehow, infuriatingly, almost tragically, just can’t put it all together.
I still believe in him — sort of. But we’ll have to wait and see.
Ironically, my 2023 predictions — at least, the applicable ones — proved more accurate than this year’s iteration. David Peterson was great, and not one but many Buddy Carlyle-type relievers emerged. Hopefully, Baty follows their lead: the year after I stop predicting his breakout, maybe it will finally come.
I do want to point to a few observations that, while not official predictions, held up pretty well. Dicta, if you will.
On May 28, I wrote: “The Mets are in a skid right now, which isn’t fun. They’re 7-16 in May, and 2-7 over their last nine games (just like in July 2014!). But that won’t last. I’ll bet you good money that at some point, they’ll put together something like a 16-7 or 9-2 stretch, and all the talk about ‘next season is already a lost cause’ will start to feel more than a little bit silly.”
The next day, the Mets kicked off a 16-7 stretch that also included a run of 9-2.
Then, on June 4, I wrote about Mark Vientos:
“Let’s say on Aug. 1, he’s batting .290 with an .870 OPS and 18 home runs (certainly far from guaranteed). Could the Mets offer him a nine-year, $95 million extension? And would he take it?”
There was no extension – but on August 1, Vientos was batting .284 with an .893 OPS and 16 home runs, which is pretty darn close to the mark (pun!).
Now, as far as the offseason to come, and the season way beyond the horizon, who in the world can tell? Could anyone have predicted that adding José Iglesias last December would alter the trajectory of Mets history? Of course not. The Mets will go out and make moves, some big and some small, and come February or March 2025 I’ll have another set of official predictions that you should probably disregard or actively bet against. Will Juan Soto be a Met? Will Pete Alonso? Will Roki Sasaki? Will everyone start calling Roki Sasaki “Roki of the Year”? Will the Mets make some bizarre signing that no one notices, that later turns out to be momentous? Probably! That’s baseball. We love it.
It's all about unknowns. The next ball that Brett Baty pulls 50 feet over the right-field fence — fair or foul? All we can do is wait and see, and all we know for sure is that we’ll be there to watch it. Soon it will be February, and here’s a prediction you can take to the bank: that first day of Spring Training will hit harder than a three-run homer.